The Kurt Bills campaign for Senate has collected criticism from the left and the right for “Quick Kurt.” His online ad imitates “Fast Paced Paul,” the introductory ad of Wellstone's 1990 underdog campaign that ended up defeating Sen. Rudy Boschwitz.

Bills campaign manager Mike Osskopp knows buzz when he hears it.

The campaign not only stands by the comparison between two underdog candidates but also is trying to reinforce the similarities.

“Wellstone and Bills also share a prairie populism," the campaign stated in a news release Tuesday. "Both come from working class backgrounds, were teachers, were wrestlers, and share a deep skepticism of the establishment.”

Bill Hillsman, the adman who created “Fast Paced Paul,” is only mildly amused.

“Strategically, it’s a stretch,” he said.But, “it’s a man-bites-dog story,” he said, because the candidates are political opposites. “He’s trying to lure people into writing about it — and it’s working.”

Hillsman ticks off the multiple differences between the two ads.

First, the Wellstone ad actually had a broadcast airing — “Literally hundreds of thousands of people saw it” — while, at present, the Bills ad is only online. (The campaign, however, said it hopes to raise enough funds to air the ad.) 

The Bills ad was written by Osskopp, who directed the scenes and sent a staff member to travel with Bills to capture the video on a handheld camera. By comparison, the Wellstone ad was created by a team of professionals, headed by Hillsman, who already had a portfolios of prestige accounts.

“Fast Paced Paul” was meant as a spoof. With a frantic Wellstone running from pillar to post, “it was a way to poke fun at the traditional biographical ads that every candidate has to do,” said Hillsman. 

“Quick Kurt” is an unabashed imitation right down to the campaign buses. “The Bills ad is an homage to Wellstone’s campaign,” said Osskopp, who said he is sorry that Wellstone’s son, David, found the ad disrespectful.

The 60-second Kurt Bills ad, twice the length of the Wellstone spot, takes a direct shot at Sen. Amy Klobuchar, citing votes that it claims Wellstone would have never taken.

Hillsman sees the mention as“an excuse to drive a wedge between Klobuchar and Wellstone.”

But at least one political observer who knew Wellstone says the Klobuchar criticism is on target.

“Klobuchar is the ‘great avoider,’ ” says former Gov. Arne Carlson. “And Minnesota has long prided itself on U.S. senators who have been in the center of controversies.” He mentioned, in particular, Eugene McCarthy, Hubert Humphrey, Dave Durenberger, even Rod Grams. 

Hillsman believes the goal of the ad, and the Bills campaign, is to reach the independent Minnesota voter.“It was fascinating how many independents voted for Wellstone,” he said.

simonandschuster.netBill Hillsman

“A lot of people who voted for Paul, didn’t agree with him on every single issue,” he said.

Hillsman allows that the perception of Wellstone as an iconic politician tempts others into association.

Again, the Bills campaign is doing nothing to keep its distance from the Wellstone image. “I know a lot of conservatives who disliked his policies but who couldn’t help but respect the fact that he had the courage of his convictions,” Bills stated in the Tuesday news release.

Still, Osskopp has had to reassure some Republicans who wondered why the campaign was cozying up to the reputation of one of the most liberal senators ever elected.

“We are not drawing a comparison to Wellstone, the senator. We are drawing a comparison to Wellstone, the candidate,” he said. “Then, I tell them, ‘Oh, by the way, he won.’ ”

“I thought you’d have recused yourself from this story,” said Ben Golnik, campaign advisor for Mike Parry, when I told him I was writing about Parry’s primary battle with Allen Quist for the GOP nomination in the first congressional district.

The Parry campaign has exhumed comments that Quist made in the 1980s and ‘90s about homosexuality and the role of women that Parry says make Quist too controversial to get elected. Those are the very same tactics that I helped carry out in 1994 when Quist was challenging incumbent Arne Carlson for the GOP nomination in the governor’s race. I told Golnik that I couldn’t resist analyzing and comparing the two campaigns.

In 1994, Carlson, a popular governor with moderate views on abortion and gay rights, lost his party’s endorsement to Quist, who had a strong following among conservative delegates at the state GOP convention who were starting to dominate in the party structure.

The setting was ideal to motivate moderate Republicans, still a force in the party, to vote in the primary election by portraying Quist as a religious and social extremist.   

Eighteen years later, though, the shock value of Quist’s comments – such as, “the husband should be the head of the household because of a genetic predisposition” – fades. His speeches as a state representative decrying homosexuality, even his visit to an X-rated bookstore for “research,” seem like old news. 

Party has changed

The GOP has since seen Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann emerge as leaders who use their views on gay rights and traditional families not as stealth tactics but as a broad appeal to conservative voters. And then there’s the recession.

“The issues today are economics, economic and economics,” Quist recently told me. He maintains that in the eight town halls he’s held since the start of his current campaign, none of the Parry attacks has come up for discussion. “The public is in a totally different place.”

And, he add, so is Allen Quist. “Politics is always changing,” he said. “Eighteen years is like -- you might as well start over.”

His views on some issues, or at least the emphasis on certain issues, have changed.  “People ask me, ‘Do I support the marriage amendment?’ Of course I do, but I’m not campaigning on it,” he says. “Am I prolife? Of course, but I’m not campaigning on it.” 

As for the role of women, Quist points out that he supported Bachmann in her presidential bid. “Frankly, I still prefer her to [Mitt] Romney.”

And one woman plays an important role in Quist’s campaign: His wife, Julie, is his campaign manager. “She’s the best campaign manager in Minnesota,” he says.

But the Parry campaign is not about to let Quist shrug off his past so easily. “The statements define Allen Quist,” says Parry. “It would be different if Allen Quist would man up to what he had done, but he consistently runs away when we bring them up.”

Case in point: Quist’s explanation of the infamous “genetic predisposition” statement. In interviews with two media outlets in 1994, in the heat of the governor’s race, Quist made the comment that the husband should be the “head of the household” because of a “genetic predisposition.”

The Arne Carlson campaign organized a group of Republican women to protest that remark. The campaign produced buttons with the words “genetic predisposition” encircled in a slash of red.  For weeks in the late summer of 1994, the button was visible on the lapels of men and women of both parties at the state Capitol.

'Religious point of view'

Today, Quist says the statement was taken out of context. “The context was: What is the historic position of the Christian church on marriage?” he says. “It was a religious point of view.”

He claims that criticism of the remark amounts to religious prejudice. “People have a sense that it’s not fair game to attack people for their religious beliefs,” he says.

But, in the first interview that Quist gave on the subject, he denied any religious motivation. My colleague David Brauer conducted the interview for the Twin Cities Reader. In a recent MinnPost article, he revisited the quote in which Quist states clearly that there is no biblical connection to the comment.

“He won’t accept responsibility,” says Parry. “And if he won’t accept responsibility, what does that tell you about a man’s character?” Parry offers an answer: “I think he’s a character that is too risky for the Republican Party to put up against [Democratic incumbent] Tim Walz.”

The voters will decide in the Aug. 14 primary. For the next week, Parry intends to remind them of  Quist’s past. “We will continue to draw a contrast and highlight the differences,” Parry says.

Quist says he believes the voters’ interests lie elsewhere. “There is no connection in what they are trying to do and where the public is,” he says. “This personal stuff that goes back 20 years, that was so, so long ago.”

While Minnesotans may find a voting booth an unexciting destination in mid-August, across the border in Wisconsin, Tuesday’s primary election holds the possibility of a higher-than-predicted voter turnout.

At least, that’s the hope of Tommy Thompson, the four-term Wisconsin governor and former U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services. Thompson is one of four candidates in a tight race to secure the Republican nomination to run against Democratic candidate Tammy Baldwin for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Herb Kohl.  

A higher turnout could favor Thompson, easily the best known in the Republican field.  He believes the Romney campaign just handed him the key to lure in more voters with the choice of fellow Wisconsinite, Congressman Paul Ryan, as Romney’s running mate.

“It’s just the fact of all the enthusiasm,” Thompson said. “The first chance you get to show your appreciation as a Republican is to vote Tuesday.”

In a phone call with reporters, Thompson acknowledged that the primary campaign has been overshadowed. State and national media followed the recall effort of current Gov. Scott Walker with far more enthusiasm. The public attention then turned to tragedy with the shootings at the Sikh temple outside of Milwaukee. Then, on Friday, presidential politics took over with speculation about Romney's Ryan announcement.

“It’s been very difficult for people to get centered and really understand,” Thompson said. “I think people are starting to come home. Instead of being a small turnout, it’s going to be a large turnout.”

That could happen, according to Minnesota Republican strategist David Fitzsimmons, himself a candidate for state representative. Ryan could be a plus for Thompson, he said.

“People like the hometown thing so there is an increased level of awareness of the political scene,” he said. “Even if it’s brief, you are going to have more people paying attention.”

Fitzsimmons says it’s not just that the large turnout favors the better-known candidate, it’s that these voters weren’t on the radar screen. “You have this extra group of people that you weren’t anticipating were going to be there,” he said.

These are voters, he suggested, that missed out on the attacks and counter-attacks lobbed at Thompson by his challengers, Eric Hovde, a hedge fund manager; Mark Neumann, a former congressman; and Jeff Fitzgerald, the speaker of the Wisconsin Assembly.

All three have claimed that Thompson is too moderate to serve as a Republican today.  With Thompson’s long history of public service, they found plenty of quotes and votes they say support that characterization.

Thompson was forced to respond and move his campaign to the right. He is sharply critical of the new health care reform law, which he once said was a step in the right direction.  He has touted endorsements from such conservatives as Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain.

Now, Paul Ryan could provide him with his strongest standing on the conservative perch. Thompson said that Ryan, like himself, is “a big thinker [with] big ideas, bold leadership, bold reforms.” In the '90s, Thompson was seen as a national leader on welfare reform and school choice, but in this campaign it proved a challenge to dust off 20-year-old talking points.  

Ryan changes the dynamic, said Joe Weber, a Republican consultant who managed campaigns during the Thompson years. “It gives Tommy the opportunity to talk about himself as reformer.  Tommy Thompson was a welfare reformer; Paul Ryan is a budget reformer. He can talk about that more aggressively, and that can’t hurt on Election Day.”

Of course, Thompson doesn’t have much time left to talk about anything with the polls now open.  But in a race that surveys suggest is too close to call, any sliver of advantage could be enough to affect the results. 

Michael Brodkorb

U.S. Senate candidate Kurt Bills is in trouble. Allen Quist still needs to prove he can win a general election. And Rick Nolan’s victory is a win, too, for the DFL endorsement process.

Those are the initial observations of Tuesday’s primary election shared in an interview by Republican consultant Michael Brodkorb, who makes good on his promise to cast a gimlet-eyed look at both parties in his new blog, politics.mn.

His take:

• Bills’ GOP primary victory of 51 percent in a three-way race was a relatively poor showing for an endorsed candidate.

“Bills' campaign has to realize there are serious concerns about the state of his campaign,” he said.  “The campaign has not established itself as being a credible viable alternative to  [Sen. Amy] Klobuchar. They should take stock of those results and recalibrate and re-establish where the campaign should be going.”

• Another winner with a cloud over his victory is Allen Quist, who battled Mike Parry for the GOP nomination in the 1st Congressional District. Brodkorb’s concern echoes that of many party activists:

“He’s shown an ability to organize at grass roots but not shown an ability to win an election. I’ve yet to be convinced that he can pull together the necessary coalitions to win against Congressman Walz.” 

Tim Walz is formidable, he says. In the moderate to conservative 1st district, “Walz has done a good job as portraying himself as a conservative, but in reality he is not.” (Before offering his assessment, Brodkorb noted that he worked briefly on Parry’s campaign.)

In Brodkorb’s view, there were two clear winners Tuesday: House Speaker Kurt Zellers and the DFL endorsement process.

Zellers broke with tradition to publicly support legislative candidate Cindy Pugh in her nomination fight against a member of Zellers’ caucus, state Rep. Steve Smith.

“It was a huge risk for Zellers, and it paid off for him,” Brodkorb says.  “That’s the kind of bold decision that people are going to gravitate toward. All politics is local, but the reverberations are not just in the 33^rd [legislative district].” Brodkorb predicts that Zeller’s stand moves him up on the list for a statewide office in years to come.

He said another primary result with impact beyond the vote came in the 8th Congressional District, where, with 38 percent of the vote, former Congressman Rick Nolan, the DFL-endorsed candidate, beat two challengers, Tarryl Clark and Jeff Anderson.

“The main thing I read from this is that the DFL is taking their endorsement process more seriously than they have in the past,” he said.  Brodkorb considered both Clark and Anderson strong opponents but said the DFL endorsement process proved stronger.

 “This is impressive," he said. "It's going to be a very good match for [Congressman Chip] Cravaack.”

Gov. Mark Dayton’s own campaign cupboard is a little bare, but this summer he’s raised thousands of dollars for the campaigns of fellow DFLers running for the Legislature. And there’s more to follow.

According to his political director, Julie Hottinger, Dayton has headlined eight events for the state House and Senate DFL caucus, six fundraising events for individual candidates, and has 40 fundraisers pending.

“Our requests have just picked up a ton in the last couple of days,” Hottinger said. “We’re working on what we can fit in.”  

Dayton says he’s all in. “I’ve got a lot at stake in terms of the outcome of the legislative races,” he said in an interview at the governor's residence, explaining why he’s spending political capital on races other than his own. “What the last two years have given us is an impasse and lack of meaningful progress.”

He said that Republicans have been forced to take such hard-positions that future legislative majorities will lead to gridlock. “We’ll be at loggerheads all the way through,” he said.

In demand

Not a born campaigner, Dayton nevertheless is in demand this election season. “I’ve told candidates I’ll do whatever helps them the most,” he chuckled. “I’ll campaign for them or I’ll campaign against them, whatever does the most good.”

While always popular among DFL activists, a recent poll gives Dayton an overall approval rating of 56 percent.

His popularity is a change from the 2010 election cycle, when many candidates shied away from a Dayton association, mainly because of his enthusiastic calls for an income tax increase among the state’s higher wage earners.

Hottinger says she’s heard of no similar apprehensions or concerns this year. “He’s a huge draw right now,” she said. “We are getting requests from all over the state, all sorts of legislative districts.”   

Dayton says the fundraising experience has exacerbated his frustration with the contribution limits imposed by campaign finance laws. State Senate and House candidates can received a maximum of $500 in individual contributions. The same limit applies to gubernatorial candidates in a non-election year.

“The limits are so absurdly low in this era of what it costs to have a campaign,” he said. “The limits haven’t been changed or indexed since 1994. Seems to me in this era, you should have reasonable limits with immediate disclosure of every dollar that goes in.”

Asked whether he’d endorse a bill to raise campaign contribution and spending limits, Dayton said now wasn’t the time to get specific, but “the Republicans are going to have the same problem, so there might be an interest in talking about that.”

Dayton restated his intention to run for re-election in 2014. At the moment, though, his campaign organization is spare, consisting only of political director Hottinger and a couple of interns. The most recent finance report for “Mark Dayton for a Better Minnesota” shows the campaign with a cash balance $46,000. He has not made a recent major fundraising push, to the chagrin of key supporters and advisers.

MinnPost photo by Brian Halliday

“Every time I’m about ready to send one [contribution request] out, the DFL or one of the caucuses asks me to send one out for them. I’ve been giving them the priority.”
 

“I’ve gotten serious pushback from some of my folks, like Tom Borman, my excellent finance chair, and others, for not having done more,” Dayton said. “Every time I’m about ready to send one [contribution request] out, the DFL or one of the caucuses asks me to send one out for them. I’ve been giving them the priority.”

Opposes amendments

Another priority are the proposed constitutional amendments on the November ballot. In a fundraising email, he describes them as “two terrible amendments to our Constitution, which would deny some Minnesota the equal right to marry legally the person they love and many others the right vote.”  Dayton has joined with the opposition groups to both amendments and headlined a major fundraiser for Minnesotans United for All Families, the umbrella group opposing the marriage amendment.

Dayton says he will focus on his own re-election campaign in good time. “Between Election Day and New Year’s, most sensible people are involved in the holidays,” he said. “Even activists need a little bit of a breather, but on January second, the bell rings and you’ve got 22 months to the election.” And in between, he points out, he is still the governor dealing with two more legislative sessions.

And he adds: “A year is a millennium in politics. Things are so volatile now, so subject to events that we can’t even see much, less control [developments].” That’s another reason, he said, that the only prize he is eyeing is the outcome in November 2012.

The planks of the 2012 national Republican Party platform, formally adopted this week in Tampa, are full of splinters for most Minnesota Republican candidates and activists.

chrisfieldsforcongress.com

Chris Fields

“I think the party platform is reflective of some members of the party.  It’s certainly not indicative of where I am on every issue,” said Chris Fields, congressional candidate in Minnesota’s 5th district. 

Fields says he is pro-life, anti-death penalty, believes in global warming and encourages tolerance and discussion on gay marriage.

“I think I’ve never met a candidate who’s agreed with every punctuation mark in every platform,” said Harry Niska, the Anoka attorney who chaired the platform committee for the Minnesota Republican Party.

Carleton College politic science professor Steven Schier put it this way:  “The platform gives the delegates a chance to rant. They are ideologues, they have enthusiasm, they are consumed with exotic issues that no one else knows anything about.”

Variety of issues

The platform, a document that covers GOP’s positions on domestic, foreign and social policy, has received extra scrutiny because of the inclusion of support for a proposed human-life amendment to the U.S. Constitution. The plank implies, but does not say explicitly, such an amendment would ban abortions in all cases, including rape and incest. Similar language has been part of the Republican platform since 1984.  But a Missouri congressman’s recent statement on “legitimate” rape has prompted pro-life and abortion rights activists to analyze every syllable in the plank for its implications.

But candidates, at least in Minnesota, seem unconcerned and unwilling to spend a lot of time talking about abortion.

“I believe that life begins at conception,” said Fields when asked whether he supports an absolute abortion ban. A survey of other Republican candidates shows some nuance on the sweep of an abortion ban, but all are declared pro-life.

“I think candidates do not talk about abortion because generally people have made up their minds,” said Schier. “Watch this fall and see if anyone talks about it.” 

As for Democrats who say the issue reveals Republicans as anti-woman, Schier offers, “they may use it because they don’t have that many arrows in their quivers.”

The platform appears to harden the party’s views on other subjects like the United Nations, women in the military, homosexuality and monetary policy.  Niska suggests that language changes are partly the result of the Republican National Committee policy that, every four years, the platform is re-written from scratch.  (In Minnesota, the platform is amended every four years.)

“What happens is, you get a lot of people with a lot of ideas,” he said.  “It’s not surprising that most platforms get that way.”

No control

carleton.edu

Steven Schier

The platform is the only way that delegates can exert their influence, according to Schier.  “In political science, it’s called an ‘expressive benefit,’ ” he said.  “They have zero, less than zero, control over candidates.”

Still, that doesn’t stop the voters from associating a candidate with a party platform, much to the frustration of Fields, who says his Republican candidacy in the 5th District of Minneapolis is often met with hostility.

“They do it all the time,” he said. “They say you’re a Republican, so you must believe in X, Y and Z. The level of political prejudice is so thick, yet there are people who don’t even know you.”

Ultimately, though, these Minnesota Republicans say, they don’t fear association with the national Republican platform. Voters, they say, understand a platform’s purpose as a way to highlight differences between the activists of the Republican and Democratic parties. They say it is not a definitive description of an individual candidate, and they hope that the voters will agree.

Politics is so important at the Minnesota State Fair that this year there’s a designated political map.

The Green, Independence, Constitution and, of course, Republican and DFL parties have staked out temporary homes at the fair, along with candidate booths and groups promoting ballot initiatives.

And why not?  An average of 150,000 people visit the fairgrounds each day of its 12-day run, visitors who are polite, curious and tolerant of anything offered with Midwestern sincerity, be it a corn dog or sign-up sheet.

The Protect My Vote booth was a particularly busy spot Wednesday, given its speck of a presence on Underwood across from the kiddie rides. The group is promoting the proposed constitutional amendment that would require voters to provide a photo ID and change voting procedures for absentee ballots and same-day registration.

“We are extremely busy – and happy,” said volunteer Dorothy Fleming, who got an earful from a visitor who said he saw a news report showing someone walking away from a voting booth with a fistful of absentee ballots. “We get the best feedback from the people who stop by.”

That’s the beauty of politics at the fair, where the carnival spills over from the Midway to the mainstream and fosters, if not a free-for-all of ideas, at least an opportunity to vent to a like-minded political volunteer.

Power of the polls

Valda Santee of Lime Springs, Iowa, crossed the border to sport her “Women for Obama” button and spend a little time with the DFL at its sprawling (for the State Fair) set-up. “These are the kind of people who are hateful,” she told a volunteer, commenting on Republican attacks on President Obama. “We ain’t going to change people, but we have the power by going to the polls.”

The volunteer represented Minnesotans United for All Families, the group urging a no vote on the proposed marriage amendment. There’s a Minnesotans United booth just down the street, where, their volunteers and literature appeared to outnumber the people and  purely political material at the DFL location.

The Republican operation on Carnes had a more establishment feel – names and photos of candidates, information on the party platform, a loop-to-loop video featuring the speech given Tuesday night by Ann Romney at the Republican National Convention in Tampa. Republicans, too, view the fair as an open-air forum for debate and straight talk. 

“There were a few comments about the Minnesota delegation at the convention and Ron Paul,” said volunteer Scott Garoutte, referring to embarrassment among some Republicans over the delegation’s refusal to back Mitt Romney and its visible anger over a change in convention rules.

Of note at the Republican booth: There was no “vote yes on the marriage amendment” presence, save for a simple sheet of information, but no buttons, signs or volunteers. The difference among the two major parties is telling. While DFLers consider the “vote no” campaign a boost to their turn-out and election chances, Republicans have come to believe the issue could actually hurt them at the polls.

Ellison vs. Fields

For fair-goers who thirsted for a little more blood in their politics, there was a debate. U.S. Rep. Keith Ellison and his GOP challenger in the 5^th District, Chris Fields, faced off at the Minnesota Public Radio booth and offered listeners and spectators some clear differences in their political approach. 

Ellison ticked off a list of projects in Minneapolis he helped fund by procuring federal support. He also supports a tax increase on the top 2 percent of wage earners. And he said he sees government-funded programs like transportation as key to raising employment.

MinnPost photo by Brian HallidayChallenger Chris Fields and Rep. Keith Ellison debating the issues in front of the State Fair crowd on Wednesday.

Fields said closing the achievement gap is the way for minorities to advance. He advocates lowering business taxes to encourage employers to expand and increase hiring. He not only opposes tax increases, he had a specific tax he wants to lower: Tips in the service industry should be tax free, he said, which should be helpful for the many service workers in his district.  

The debate was punctuated by hoots and cheers from Fields and Ellison supporters. But the crowd of more than 100 that gathered in front of the MPR studio on Judson included more than political staff or 5^th District residents. They were the fair-goers, the Minnesotans who know that the State Fair is the unofficial end of summer and the official start of the election season.

If Mitt Romney’s acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention Thursday night was a piece of steak, it would have been a small portion, grilled over a low flame and served medium. A sampling of local political reaction to the speech indicates that, like steak, observers have their preference.

“You can come out of these speeches with a five- or six-point bounce with a dynamic speech that had some real one-liners,” said Republican activist and consultant Chris Tiedeman. “That was clearly not the focus. It was to lay out the conversation for the rest of the campaign.”

Tiedeman had met Romney four years ago in a small-group setting where, he said, Romney was less impressive than others vying for the nomination in 2008. Tiedeman saw a big change last night.

“I thought he was great last night,” he said. “He had a number of points he had to make.  He’s a business guy and he made it clear that was going to be his focus.”

Carrie Lucking, executive director for Alliance for a Better Minnesota, a group that works on behalf of DFL candidates, viewed the Romney speech as a glass half-empty. “It was better than most people expected, but light on substance -- and most of that substance was policies that haven’t worked,” she said.

Lucking said the convention itself didn’t serve Romney well. “There was no consensus on a path forward or a vision on how to turn things around,” she said.

Some of that lack of consensus was evident in the floor fight among delegates over a change in party rules that would require states to bind their delegates to the clear front-runner in a nomination race. No one was angrier with that rule than the Minnesota delegates pledged to Ron Paul.  

Marianne Stebbins, a delegate and chair of Paul’s Minnesota campaign, said she hopes Romney will use his new position as nominee to change the rule. “This is the RNC stomping on grass roots,” she said, the people who will be needed to help Romney win. Those potential voters are “up in arms,” she said.

If Stebbins is correct on discontent among the Paul delegates, Romney’s speech didn’t change much. “The speech was less successful as an inspiring speech to motivate people to get out there and win the election,” said Dale Carpenter, a Republican active in the campaign to defeat the marriage amendment and law professor at the University of Minnesota.

But Carpenter agrees with Tiedeman that Romney emphasized the right issues: the economy and jobs. “I’m also glad he avoided extended treatment of hot button social issues,” he said.

REUTERS/Jason ReedActor Clint Eastwood addressing an empty chair during the final night of the Republican National Convention.

Romney’s comments on social issues were limited to one line about the sanctity of life and marriage.

Romney’s image -- or the “optics,” as political consultants like to phrase it -- played well for Carpenter, Tiedeman and Stebbins.

“In terms of him personally, I’m glad he avoided playing the candidate he is not,” said Carpenter.  “America does not need a loveable president, they need a competent president.”

Stebbins said: “I think there was a lot of nice optimism. He’s very upbeat, positive in contrasting himself with Barack Obama. But I was listening for content, and I didn’t hear a lot. I was listening for some kind of acknowledgement that he was interested in bring the liberty votes to the table.”

Romney didn’t mention the liberty votes, and barely even used the word “liberty,” but he did spend a considerable amount of time lauding women and their influence in his personal and professional life.

“A bit forced,” is how Carpenter reacted. 

Lucking dismissed the those parts of the speech. “No matter how many women inspired Mitt Romney, his policies turn back the clock for women,” she said.

Lucking and Tiedeman agree that Romney’s statement “I wish President Obama had succeeded because I want America to succeed” sounded a note Americans want to hear. 

“Republicans realize that Americans are angry with people who say they want the president to fail,” said Lucking.

“I think the point he was trying to make, and he did it well, is that everybody had high hopes for Obama even if they didn’t vote for him because we are Americans,” said Tiedeman.

But as a piece of stagecraft, a crescendo of words and thoughts that soared and stirred and sealed the deal for an undecided voter, Romney’s speech fell short.

“It was a perfectly workmanlike effort,” Carpenter said. “Nobody will remember it in a month. Probably a week.”

A settlement in the Michael Brodkorb wrongful termination case against the Minnesota Senate could be on the fast track.

U.S. Chief Magistrate Judge Arthur  Boylan on Thursday ordered Brodkorb and the state into confidential settlement talks. The talks will be conducted by Boylan and begin Sept. 24. 

The talks will center on Brodkorb’s claim that he was illegally fired from his position as Senate communications director after his boss, former Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch, resigned her post after admitting she had a personal relationship with a subordinate staff member. Brodkorb and Koch later acknowledge they had a relationship. 

Brodkorb maintains in his suit that he was treated differently than other staff members who had been similarly involved with their supervisors. The Senate has maintained that Brodkorb was an at-will employee who could be fired without cause. 

Brodkorb is also suing the Senate and  Secretary of the Senate Cal Ludeman for defamation of character for a statement to the media that accused Brodkorb of trying to “extort” the Senate. A third claim of invasion of privacy has been dropped.

The presence of Boylan in the settlement talks indicates an agreement is near, according to an attorney who is close to the case, but not representing either side. A federal magistrate brings more weight to a settlement discussion than a third party mediator, he said.  “It’s an indicator that the judge believes the case is a waste of judicial resources and wants the matter to come to a quick close,” said the attorney.

The lawyer said the order to enter into settlement talks comes with two key stipulations. The first is that Senate Majority Leader Dave Senjem and Ludeman directly take part in the discussion. The second stipulation is that if a settlement is reached, Senjem would be required to make a good faith effort to get the cost of the settlement approved by the Senate Rules Committee.

Boylan has imposed a gag order, preventing parties involved from publicly discussing the case. The amount of a settlement is matter of speculation, but the expectation is that a settlement would cost less than legal fees in defending the suit, already more than $100,000.

With a degree of pride, Fadumo Yusuf, a Somali immigrant living in Fridley, offered her photo identification when she showed up at the Protect My Vote rally at O’Gara’s bar in St. Paul. She knew it wasn’t necessary but wanted to make a statement of her support for the proposed constitutional amendment on the November ballot.

MinnPost photo by Brian HallidayFadumo Yusuf

“I believe that passing this law, having a photo I.D. is good,” she said Monday night. As an immigrant, she said, she frequently encounters requests for identification and cannot understand the opposition. “What are you hiding, why are you refusing?” she wondered.

Yusuf reflected the tone of the crowd of about 100 at what was billed as a kick-off of the campaign to pass a constitutional amendment requiring photo identification before casting a ballot and other changes in voting procedures.

The event featured Wall Street Journal writer and author John Fund, whose recent book “Who’s Counting” describes the recount travails of the 2008 Minnesota U.S. Senate race, won by Al Franken by 312 votes. Fund’s premise is that the pros and cons of the voter identification boil down to a clash of visions.

“It is so important that we have the maximum possible voter turnout, everything else is unimportant or secondary,” he said in an interview, describing opposition to voter I.D. “It’s the right not to be blocked from voting versus the right not to have your vote canceled out by someone who shouldn’t be voting.

“I don’t think this is a left right-issue. I think this is an up-or-down issue. If this were a left-right issue, it would be polarized outside the political elites, 50-50.”

Most polls show support for similar voting amendments crosses party, gender and race lines. In Minnesota, polling consistently has shown a wide margin of support for the proposed amendment.

“Voter fraud is bipartisan,” Fund said, for partisan gain. “There’s stuff going on behind the curtain that they prefer not to see.”

MinnPost photo by Brian HallidayJohn Fund signing copies of his book “Who’s Counting.”

Fund acknowledges the good intentions of opponents like the Our Vote, Our Future campaign. They argue that the most vulnerable citizens, without up-to-date identification, would be disenfranchised, unable to penetrate the bureaucratic maze to procure valid documents. 

State GOP Rep. Mary Kiffmeyer, the former Minnesota secretary of state and author of the voting amendment legislation, says that if the proposal becomes law, it will be “very generous” in accommodating all voters. “The law will require a valid, government-issued photo ID or substantial equivalent to make sure that the disadvantaged get IDs,” she said, stressing the word “equivalent.”

Rep. Mary Kiffmeyer

In an interview at the rally, she ticked off a list of what she said were protections: the I.D.s will be free, outreach will be substantial and the law will provide for an expansion of provisional ballots that will allow a person without valid identification to vote on Election Day and provide proper verification of identity with a week.

Opponents say the details of these protections are not spelled out in the language of the proposed constitutional amendment and remain a hazy goal of additional legislation. 

Kiffmeyer expressed confidence that the 2013 session of the Legislature will accomplish that goal, with a minimum of obstruction. 

Secretary of State Mark Ritchie argues  that the requirement that voters must show a photo ID at the polls is only a small part of far-reaching language that actually would end up dismantling or significantly altering absentee balloting and Minnesota’s popular Election Day registration system.

Some Minnesota Republicans are defending Mitt Romney’s comments secretly recorded at a fundraiser in May, saying they hope he does not back away from his statement that 47 percent of Americans pay no taxes and are dependent on government

“He spoke the truth about the dependency rate,” said St. Paul Republican activist John Gilmore. “That number 47 percent, that comes as news to people and that’s what they are talking about.”

According to the Tax Policy Center,  46.4 percent of American households pay no federal income tax, although most pay other taxes, including payroll taxes.  

At a fundraising event in Boca Raton, Fla., Romney referred to the base of voters who support President Obama as “dependent upon the government, who believe they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it.” Romney has defended the remarks since the release of the video.

For Kelly Fenton, deputy chair of the Minnesota Republican party, that description serves as a clearly worded differentiation of goals of the two candidates.

“Romney was pointing out the difference between his and Obama’s policies,” she said.  “We’ve seen as Obama’s solutions – more government.  Romney’s solution is less dependence on government, more focus on personal responsibility and freedom to purse the American dream.”

In the 7^th congressional district, Lee Byberg, Collin Peterson’s GOP challenger, has also endorsed Romney’s comments, saying “Romney was merely stating the obvious.”

Still, other Republicans – including GOP Senate candidates Scott Brown of Massachusetts and Linda McMahon of Connecticut – have distanced themselves from the comments and worry that it reinforces an image promoted by Democrats that Romney is out of touch with middle-class Americans.

Timing questioned

Fenton and others question the timing of the release of the video. By news standards, comments made five months ago, if they were not furtively taped, would be moldering today in an archive folder. “The timing is interesting because it shifted the discussion over [events in] the Middle East,” she said. “It’s a great distraction away from issues in terms of how Obama is handling the Middle East uprising and the embassy attacks.” 

Gilmore called the video a non-event. “Secret video? There’s nothing secret. Anyone inside or outside that tent would have heard the whole thing,” he said

Romney’s own comments on the Middle East, meanwhile, have also been the focus of attention. In the video, he says:

“The Palestinians have no interest whatsoever in establishing peace… And I look at the Palestinians not wanting to see peace anyway, for political purposes, committed to the destruction and elimination of Israel, and I say, ‘there’s just no way,’ and so what you do is you move things along the best way you can.”

According to Gilmore, this is not news. “If it comes as news to someone that the Palestinians don’t want peace, they have not been paying attention,” he said. 

News coverage of Romney’s video comments will likely decline in the coming days. But Republicans say they believe his comments have had an unintended silver lining: They resonated with Romney’s supporters.

Gilmore, for one, wants the comments to be repeated.  “I wish he were this fired up on the stump.”

hhh.umn.eduVin Weber

There was a worry in Vin Weber’s generally upbeat assessment of Republican chances for victory in November.

The former congressman and GOP consultant was asked at a Humphrey Institute forum at the University of Minnesota on Friday about Republican turnout in Minnesota.

“I’m worried about that,” he responded. “It’s worrisome that the top two positions don’t appear to be competitive.”

If Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign doesn’t deliver and land some punches soon, Weber said, he fears that Minnesota’s record of always choosing the Democratic presidential candidate and Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s commanding lead over Kurt Bills will hurt Republicans down the ticket.

There may be a suggestion of a top-of-the-ticket weakness in the 6th District, where Democrat Jim Graves is touting his chances of defeating Rep. Michele Bachmann.

“She needs to take this race very seriously, and she is,” Weber said. Bachmann has many political advantages, he said, not the least of which is her loyal base of voters. “But her problem is, she ran for president,” Weber said. “National notoriety does not help in the district.”

But Dave Fitzsimmons, candidate for state representative in district 30B in Buffalo, the conservative heart of the 6^th District, sees no flagging of Bachmann support where he lives. Furthermore, he questions the intensity of Democratic voters and whether Klobuchar or President Obama has pulling power.

“I just don’t see excitement driving those voters here to the polls,” he said.

Close race

Weber said the presidential race is “remarkably close.” “What has to change is that the Romney campaign is on the defense, and that has to change,” he said.

He noted Republican image-maker and former Bachmann presidential campaign manager Ed Rollins has said that Romney needs to turn it around in the next few days and not count on the debates to be the game-changer.

Romney needs to score some points on substance, Weber said, and not rely on tactical diversions. It could be as simple as making three major speeches on the economy, jobs and foreign policy. “The problem isn’t lack of specificity. He has a lot,” Weber said. “But he hasn’t figured out how to wrap it up into a nice, neat package.”

Weber, who is an adviser to the Romney campaign, although not a close one, agreed with Romney’s own assessment that the candidate’s choice of words at the infamous Boca Raton fundraiser was “inelegant.”

Rather than dismissing the 47 percent who don’t pay taxes, Romney should talk about giving them more opportunities so they can pay taxes, Weber said.

“My own view is that a mistake was made with the question, ‘Are you better off than you were four years ago?’” Weber said.  “The right questions is, ‘Will you be better off four years from now?’”

He said the Obama and Romney campaigns have failed to focus on issues, even though both say this is the most important election in decades. “You wouldn’t tell that based on what they’re talking about,” he said.

No shakeups

But Weber still has confidence in Romney and doesn’t expect campaign shakeups. “The governor produces a very healthy form of loyalty,” he said. “He performed well in the [primary] debates, in the primaries. The campaign is organized.” 

Weber also noted that funding of the Romney campaign, when combined with money from the Republican National Committee, is $40 million ahead of the president and the Democratic National Committee.  

As for legislative candidates, it’s true that the further down the ticket, the less the top makes a difference. But Weber cited recent polls that have shown that in this election, party preference is coinciding with candidate preference – in other words, if you say you are Democrat, you will be less likely to switch that preference as you go down the ballot.

Still, “it’s winnable, it’s not a lost cause,” Weber said, choosing his words carefully. “They need to let him [Romney] talk about the issues.” Romney needs to ask, “Do you want to keep marching down this road?”

Republicans would be a lot less nervous if Romney starts expanding on the issues and undecided voters answer that question with a “no.”

It used to be a Republican stronghold — Senate District 49, which encircles Edina, West Bloomington and now, parts of Eden Prairie and Minnetonka.

But this year, there are no incumbents, no oft-elected candidates who used the district’s strong sense of tradition as part of their winning strategy.

With the open seats, the Republican candidates are taking nothing for granted and DFLers see the prize seats they’ve coveted for years within their grasp.

An indicator of the change is Republican Rep. Keith Downey’s strong effort to fill the Senate seat vacated by the GOP's Geoff Michel.  Downey, who now represents the western half of the district, aims to raise $120,000 in an effort to beat DFLer Melisa Franzen.  His campaign made strides toward that goal with a fundraiser Monday that featured former U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman.

“This is not a 'wave' election,” Coleman said in an interview. “In this cycle, it’s anti-incumbent.  You can’t depend on party ID.  You’ve got to be-old fashioned — do your homework.”

So Downey door-knocks, he releases regular email updates and even has an ad running on cable TV. One of the party's leaders on government reform efforts in the Minnesota House, he distributed a six-page “Reform Roadmap” at Monday’s League of Women Voters’ candidate forum.

Political newcomer Franzen, an attorney at Target Corp., appears to be keeping up with Downey on the fundraising front.  Her finance report filed in July shows a balance of nearly $40,000, which insiders say could be close to double that amount now. Her fundraising base is unusual for a legislative race, with more than two-dozen contributions coming from out-of-state.

At the candidate forum, Franzen was aggressive in her opening statement. “Our district needs a moderate voice, not an extreme voice,” she said.  The candidates showed their differences, both in style and substance.   

MinnPost photo by Brian HallidayFormer Sen. Norm Coleman in attendance
at the Downey fundraiser.

Downey says there will be enough new revenue in the next budget cycle to keep it in balance and pay back funds borrowed from Minnesota schools. Franzen, however, says there really is no surplus and that the state needs new revenue, such as an Internet tax. Franzen supports a southwest light rail corridor as a jobs creator; Downey says there are other multimodal transportation options to relieve congestion.  

Downey offered his comments with a mix of facts and figures; Franzen peppered her remarks with words like “compromise,” “tolerance” and “moderate.”

The contest and the contrast are similar on the east side of the district where Republican Terry Jacobson is facing DFLer Paul Rosenthal for the House seat in 49B.

Another open seat, 49B covers mainly West Bloomington with an even split among Democrats and Republicans. It’s one of the races we are highlighting in our reports on who will control the Legislature in 2013.

In 49B, Rosenthal holds the name advantage as a former state representative for the area in 2009 and 2010. Like many DFL candidates, he uses the theme that voters are frustrated with legislative gridlock. “It’s definitely a moderate district,” he said. “I vote with both sides of the aisle.”

Jacobson says she occasionally hears similar comments.  “Voters say they want compromise, but what they want is people working together for a solution,” she said.

Despite the ease of campaigning through websites, Facebook pages and YouTube, Jacobson and Rosenthal (like Downey and Franzen) work hard on the ground game of direct voter contact and lawn signs.

“For me, it’s meeting people at the door that makes the district, having the one-on-one conversation,” Rosenthal said. Jacobson, too, knows the district well. “I’ve  walked the district for many years through work on other campaigns,” she said.

At the moment, outside spending on the candidates, for and against, is minimal. But both DFLers and Republicans agree that Senate 49 and House 49B are target districts and that independent groups will be weighing in soon. So, the candidates themselves are concentrating on offense. “I’m just focusing on my own campaign,” Jacobson said.

That’s the way it should be for the candidates, according to campaign veteran Coleman, who now directs a political action committee that is spending to elect Republican congressional candidates. “Not being carried in by coattails, that’s a good thing,” he said. A candidate should be “carried in by the sweat of your brow.”

There are no visible perspiration beads yet in the District 49 races, but all involved say they expect the sweat will rise on Election Night, where these races are expected to be decided by 1or 2 points.

Pocketbook issues — not the political blame game, or even the two controversial constitutional amendments — are dominating the debate so far in many key Minnesota legislative races.

The intertwined concerns about jobs and the economy are surfacing in legislative campaigns across the state.

 “I’ve heard three things: jobs, jobs, jobs,” said Republican Sen. Carla Nelson, who is running in District 26 around Rochester against the DFL candidate, attorney Ken Moen.

The two are battling in one of the 28 “highly competitive” legislative races MinnPost is watching that could determine whether the Republican Party keeps control of the Legislature or the DFL regains its majority in one or both houses.

It would take a gain of only seven House seats and four in the Senate for the DFL to retake the majorities the party lost in the massive Republican victory in 2010. (Check out our interactive graphic on the featured competitive races and all of the 201 legislative contests.)

That’s why DFL Chairman Ken Martin said his party has made the legislative races a top statewide priority with a two-prong approach:

• Trying to counter Republican attempts to claim credit for the state’s so-called budget surplus.

• And highlighting GOP policies DFL candidates say are harming regular Minnesotans.

“The issues alone are on our side,'' Martin said. "People see the harm of cuts all around them. Eagan alone has laid off 80 teachers in two years.''

Likewise, Republican legislative candidates are going all out to make their case to stay in control.

Minnesota GOP Chairman Pat Shortridge says the party’s top priorities are maintaining its legislative majorities and keeping its four GOP congressional seats.

Republican candidates, he says, are stressing their record of “responsible leadership” that includes:

• Turning the state’s deficit into a surplus while also trying to pay back K-12 schools.

• Blocking Gov. Mark Dayton’s attempts to “force” unionization of day-care workers.

• Staving off DFL-backed, “job-killing” tax increases.

“It’s a fact that Democrats are going to be votes for Mark Dayton's agenda of bigger government, much higher taxes, and huge giveaways to government employee unions,” Shortridge wrote. “We need jobs and a growing economy. Republican solutions will get our economy moving again and put people back to work. The Democrats' approach has failed and the answer isn’t to double down on it.”

Economic issues big with voters

Economic issues, including the state’s budget situation, are drawing strong voter interest, according to both DFL and GOP candidates in many of the 28 key races we’re watching.

Nelson, like many Republicans, is campaigning in the Rochester area on the state’s budget outlook, which the GOP says is much improved from the situation lawmakers inherited in 2010.

DFLers, however, are quick to point out that much of that improvement came at the expense of the state’s public schools, with many districts resorting to short-term borrowing to make up for delayed school aid payments that were shifted to help close the budget shortfall.

kenmoen.org

Ken Moen campaigns at a parade

Nelson's challenger, Ken Moen,  said he’s working to educate voters about the actual state of Minnesota’s short- and long-term budget situation: “We borrowed money from our kids, our schools.”

He’s concentrating his 90-second pitch on moderates of all parties — DFLers, independents and Republicans (he skips homes rated strong Democrat or strong Republican).

Moen said he usually gets a passionate response: “The budget is an important issue to [voters], and they don’t seem to be buying the spin the Republicans are putting on it.”

Likewise, voters in House District 49B in Edina and Bloomington are expressing concerns about jobs and the economy.

State budget at issue, too

At a recent forum sponsored by the League of Women Voters, DFL candidate Paul Rosenthal and Republican candidate Terry Jacobson fielded several questions about the state budget and how to keep it in balance.

Rosenthal, who served as state representative for the area in 2009-10, described the current budget as kept in balance by “duct tape and mirrors.”

He, like other DFL candidates, considers the state to be facing a $4 billion shortfall next year because of factors not reflected in the current numbers, such as automatic spending increases and restoration of funding to K-12 education.

Rosenthal said he would look first to spending reductions but believes the state will need another revenue source, such as taxes on Internet sales.

Jacobson, meanwhile, sees the budget solution in job growth. The state needs to “focus on increasing revenue through more private activity,” she told the forum.

She, too, said spending cuts are the first option. She rejects the idea that the state will face a major budget shortfall, arguing that those estimates are based in large part on factoring in automatic spending increases. The state, she said, should “hold the budget static.”

Both candidates are sensitive to voter concerns about slow job growth, particularly voiced by parents with children just coming out of college. Jacobson said she hears that when she’s out door- knocking.

“What they want to see is a little more impact,” Jacobson said in an interview. “People are looking for work, and it’s taking a long time.”

Partisan differences

In Senate District 36 in Champlin, the debate on taxes and spending is the key issue, and the candidates aren’t afraid to show their partisan differences. There’s little or no talk about “reaching across the aisle.”

 In a Sept. 23 debate, for example, Republican Sen. Benjamin Kruse and DFL challenger John Hoffman outlined opposing views on balancing the budget, paying for education, and expanding health care options.

Like Gov. Mark Dayton, Hoffman favors a tax increase on the state’s highest wage earners, saying, “I believe in greater fairness in the tax rate.” Kruse opposes tax increases.

Hoffman favors a single-payer health care system; Kruse says that’s “the wrong way to go.”

To create jobs, Hoffman wants to close tax loopholes to bring off-shore revenue back to Minnesota. Kruse, instead, favors lowering business taxes.

Kruse advocates ways to fund education without raising taxes, such as reforming school trust lands and promoting results-based funding formulas. Hoffman, who is vice chair of the Anoka-Hennepin school district, said delaying school payments has forced many districts to borrow.

In House District 24B near Faribault, DFL Rep. Patti Fritz touts one specific employment category: blue-collar jobs.

Fritz, who doesn’t use social media or a website in her campaign, said she’s focused on wage increases for workers. Her work as a nurse and her husband’s job as a firefighter — along with the experience of her Depression-era parents — have instilled a real sense of what poverty is like, she said.

Fritz, who learned grass-roots politics from Sen. Paul Wellstone, is confident her campaign is reaching voters effectively through personal interactions.

The race is a rematch of 2010, when Fritz narrowly beat her Republican opponent, Dan Kaiser, by 152 votes.

Kaiser cites job growth and taxes as his top priorities, noting on his website, “Creating a favorable business climate is key to job growth.” On taxes, he says: “Our economic prosperity depends on state government lowering this burden and cutting taxes.”

Property tax, homestead credit DFL issues

The DFL has found another way to highlight economic issues, attempting to pound home, especially in rural areas, the combined impact of rising property taxes and the loss of the homestead tax credit.

These are especially significant concerns in Iron Range areas like House District 5B, where two incumbents — Tom Anzelc and Carolyn McElfatrick — are facing off.

tomanzelc.com

Rep. Tom Anzelc argues that the property tax system works better in the metro than in northern Minnesota.

The small commercial tax base complicates finances there.

"Property taxes don't work for us,'' Anzelc says. "Mining pays no property tax. Forestry industry pays at a reduced rate, or not at all. There's no property tax on the Indian reservations. There are no property taxes on state, federal county parklands. When the philosophy is to pay for services with property taxes, it might work in the metro areas but it simply doesn't work for us.''

GOP policies supported by McElfatrick, he said, have led to increases in property taxes. The elimination of the homestead credit has "caused great pain, and my opponent voted for that,” he said.'

Anzelc admits these are complex issues to frame neatly: "But more so than in past elections, people seem to understand the links [between state legislative financial decisions and local taxes].”

mcelfatrick.com

Rep. Carolyn McElfatrick's views are in line with much of the GOP on the government's role in job creation.

McElfatrick outlines her views on government’s role in job creation on her website: “There seems to be a belief that it is government’s responsibility to create jobs. That’s not the system that built the economic powerhouse that is America. It is not the duty of government to create jobs. It is the rightful role of government to stay out of the way and let the free market system do that.”

DFL, GOP's different tacks on gridlock

In competitive races across the state, Democrats have stressed Capitol gridlock as a major voter concern, while GOP candidates tend to downplay the issue.

Both candidates for House District 39 B in Lake Elmo, for example, are hearing concerns from voters about legislative gridlock and hyper-partisan politics. DFLer Tom DeGree says the gridlock issue must be solved. Incumbent Republican Kathy Lohmer, however, says there’s plenty of cooperation that voters don’t hear about.

The economy and jobs are still front and center, says DeGree, a teacher and co-owner of the Wilde Roast Café in Minneapolis. He adds, though: “I’ve been knocking since April and the big issue — they are sick of the politics, government not working together.”

Lohmer says she has heard similar comments.

“But I tell them, there was a lot of legislation that passed with bipartisan support, a lot of vote boards with all green,” she said.

Johnson, who is trying again for elected office after a 12-year hiatus, says she tells voters, “I am running for one thing — to try to get rid of gridlock.”

Their reply, she says, is a nod and a knowing smile.

Sen. Ted Lillie

But Sen. Ted Lillie, a first-term Republican running in Senate District 53 in Woodbury, said he’s heard more from voters about jobs and the economy than about excessive partisanship.

Lillie is in a good position to discuss the shutdown because he proposed legislation to prevent it from happening again.

“There are conversations about the shutdown and who is responsible for that,” he said. “The Legislature bears some responsibility; the governor bears some responsibility. I had a bill that I proposed that basically would eliminate future shutdowns.”

Lillie’s July 2011 plan — supported by other GOP lawmakers and originally championed by then-Sen. Yvonne Prettner Solon, now the state’s lieutenant governor — would have funded government operations at current levels if there were no budget agreement. Ultimately, the bill failed to gain traction last session.

Susan Kent

His opponent, Susan Kent, however, says voters have expressed “incredible frustration at the gridlock.” She cites a conversation with one small-business owner about the difference between moderate Republicans and more conservative members of the caucus. Afterward, she said, the man told her: “You know what, I almost always vote Republican, but I think you’ve got my vote.”

Amendments low-key concern so far

So far, the two constitutional amendments on the ballot have drawn less interest from voters, candidates on both sides of the aisle reported to MinnPost, often with not a little surprise.

The voting amendment, which would require a voter ID to cast a ballot and would alter Minnesota’s election system, and the marriage amendment, which would define marriage as between one man and one woman, have attracted significant media attention and millions of dollars in outside spending.

But the average homeowner in many of the contested legislative districts hasn’t questioned candidates vigorously about how the amendments would play out — at least not yet.

“Actually, it’s not coming up as often as one would expect,” Lillie said. “I think it’s still early in the process … but I think there’s going to be a lot of interest placed in the media in the next coming weeks.”

Likewise, Patti Fritz said she was surprised at how little attention the amendments are getting in her visits with Faribault voters.

“Nothing. It’s like they’re not even on the ballot down here,” she said. “We’re trying to make a living down here.”

Likewise, in House District 39B, DFLer DeGree says he has heard very little. However, Lohmer, the  incumbent, says voters are asking about the voting amendment. Most of those she talks to support the amendment, she said, but are concerned or confused by some of the information they are hearing.

Although the marriage amendment is not a major issue in the district, the two candidates have clearly different views. Lohmer’s website states: “I support marriage between one man and one woman and nothing else as its legal equivalent.” DeGree’s Wilde Roast Café, meanwhile, was one of the first businesses to sign onto the Vote No campaign. His website says: “We need less government, not more in our personal lives.”

Sen. Jeremy Miller, a Republican from Winona who is running for re-election in Senate District 28, said he uses his opposition to the voting amendment to show voters he can work across the aisle.

Miller was the lone Republican in the Senate to vote against the proposed ballot question. “I feel I’ve been with the people, and that’s the most important,” he said.

What impact will the Minnesota ballot’s two constitutional amendments have on voter turnout and the battle for control of the Legislature?

Start with these seemingly contradictory statements:

• Despite millions of dollars being spent in the fight over the two measures, experts in Minnesota elections don’t expect the amendments to create any significant surge in the number of voters.

• The marriage amendment and the voting amendment could determine whether Republicans maintain control of both legislative chambers -- or whether DFLers return to power.

How can both be true?

Secretary of State Mark Ritchie and other state election experts say they don’t expect the amendments to draw larger numbers than for a typical presidential election. With or without the amendments, Ritchie expects a turnout of about 78 percent of eligible voters.

But there’s a huge caveat in this blanket statement, warns Joe Mansky, Ramsey County elections director and an expert on state voting patterns.

“My simple reaction is that turnout is driven by the presidential race,” Mansky said. “There will be a falloff on those who vote on the presidential race and those who vote on the amendments. Typically, that falloff is about 5 percent. But, in a close legislative race, a surge of support for, or against, either of the amendments could swing that race.”

Handfuls of votes could decide swing elections in many races, including the 28 that MinnPost has identified as key to watch in determining which party will hold power come January.

DFL, GOP strategies

Interestingly, DFLers believe opposition to the voting amendment will boost DFL candidates, especially in districts that include Indian reservations. Also, DFL candidates in college towns across the state hope that opposition to the marriage amendment will spur higher-than-normal student participation.

MinnPost photo by James Nord

DFLers are hoping that opposition to the voting amendment will motivate voters to go to the polls.

Republicans, meantime, are trying to maximize turnout by social conservatives. Over the weekend, for example, Republicans directly teamed up with the Minnesota Family Council to hold door-knocking campaigns to make sure that social conservatives get to the polls in support of the marriage amendment.

Much has been written about the marriage amendment, which has brought in millions of dollars, divided Christian churches, attracted national attention and, presumably, stirred the bases of both the GOP and DFL.

Less attention, however, has been paid to the potential impact of the voting amendment on other races.

Big issue on Indian reservations

But it is a very passionate issue on American Indian reservations. Tribal leaders across the state are urging their members to oppose the amendment.

“Native Americans are very disturbed by that amendment,’’ said incumbent DFL Sen. Tom Saxhaug, who, because of redistricting, is paired against incumbent Republican Sen. John Carlson in District 5, one of our key races to watch. “They’re skeptical of the intent. I’m a history major, and I understand their suspicion,” he said.

The Leech Lake reservation makes up a part of that newly created Senate district and also lies in new House District 5A, which also pairs two incumbents, Republican Larry Howes and DFLer John Persell. With Leech Lake, this district now is 19.5 percent minority (mostly American Indian). If tribal leaders are successful in boosting turnout to oppose the voting amendment, it’s a decided plus for Persell, a policy analyst for the tribe.

Assuming that tribal members, who vote heavily DFL, do turn out in higher numbers than normal, first-time candidate Roger Erickson, a DFLer, is expected to benefit significantly in his race against incumbent Republican Dave Hancock in House District 2A, which includes the Red Lake Reservation.

According to a MinnPost anaylsis, that district leans only slightly DFL, based on voter patterns in the last three legislative elections.

However, much has changed for Hancock, who was part of the Republican wave of 2010. (He won by 800 votes over DFL incumbent Brita Sailer.)

Hancock said the Tea Party anger, especially over Obamacare, “doesn’t have the resonance” it had two years ago.

More importantly, District 2A has been reconfigured, putting the Red Lake Nation at the center of the district. The Indian population accounts for about 18 percent of the new district.

With the Indian vote heavily favoring DFLers, Erickson, a longtime assistant football coach and teacher in Baudette, would be the beneficiary.

To be clear, both candidates say the amendment is not the major issue as they travel across the huge district. (Gasoline is one of the major campaign expenses in the district, said Hancock of traveling a district that covers more than 140 miles north to south as the crow flies.)

Property taxes and the state’s shifting of school funds are the primary issues that both candidates hear about when they knock on doors.

In fact, Hancock believes that overall, the district likely leans toward supporting both amendments.

But in a race that likely will be decided by only a few hundred votes, the amendments, especially the voter amendment, could play a role — and not just on the reservation.

Erickson points out many precincts in the district have turned to mail-only voting as both a way to save money and to offer convenience to voters who otherwise would have to travel significant distances to vote.

As constituents learn more about the possible impact of the amendment, there’s growing concern about what it could mean to mail voting, he believes.

And then there’s the Red Lake factor.

“It’s another reason for Native Americans not to trust Republicans,” Erickson said of the voter amendment. “There’s a concern that Republicans are trying to disenfranchise them.’’

Republicans have been trying to calm Indian concerns, saying that tribal IDs would be valid under the new system.  But it’s a tough sell.

Amendment factor unclear

There’s even less clarity about the role the amendments will play in other key races in the state.

In House District 14B (the St. Cloud area), for example,  both incumbent Republican King Banaian and DFL challenger Zach Dorholt believe the marriage amendment could play at least a small role in turnout in a race that Banaian won in 2010 by a scant 13 votes.

“I have been surprised how little the amendments have come up at the doors,” said Banaian, who supported both amendments, in an email.

“I have had a few gay and lesbian couples at doors with whom I have had good conversations but not much from the yes side. Vote ‘Yes’ on Marriage signs showed up later here, but we’re seeing more in the last few weeks. With seven Catholic churches in the district, parishioners … recently got a letter on the amendment from their bishop, [so] I expect some motivation to turn out.

“I see no evidence of people turning out just to decide whether or not to use photo ID,” he continued.  “ ‘Yes’ on photo ID signs outnumber the ‘No’ signs by a wide margin.”

Dorholt, however, believes that the marriage amendment could play a role because of the area’s college students.

“The college-age people are adamantly opposed to the gay marriage amendment,” he said.

College vote a factor in Northfield race

In Northfield (Senate District 20), former DFL Sen. Kevin Dahle is banking on college students at Carleton College and St. Olaf to turn their opposition to the marriage amendment into votes for him in his race against the GOP’s Mike Dudley.

“It’s going to be huge for me in Northfield,” said Dahle, who lost to Al DeKruif by 2.6 percent in 2010. (Redistricting ended up pairing DeKruif and fellow Republican Sen. Julie Rosen, so DeKruif stepped out.)

While Dahle plans get-out-the-vote rallies at the two colleges, Dudley works other areas of the district.

There’s “much more fertile ground for me to troll for votes than the colleges would be,” he said of working a district that the MinnPost analysis shows leans slightly to the GOP.

Although both the GOP and DFL adopted predictable positions on the amendments in their platforms, the parties and most candidates seemed until recently to keep arm’s length from the amendments.

A strategy change

That seemed to change late last week, when Republicans in Edina, Eagan and Grand Rapids received a letter under the combined heading of the GOP and the Minnesota Family Council. The letter urged activists to get involved in a door-knocking effort on Saturday.

Portions of the letter:  “This Saturday, Oct. 6th, the MN Family Council is taking part in a national conservative door-knocking campaign. We need to build 10 door-knocking teams to reach pre-identified conservative households in Edina. … Teams will have a minimum of two people. To get the best response, we will attempt to mix males and females. We want kids, the younger the better. Family teams with kids are perfect.”

That tactic of partnering with marriage amendment advocates may indicate that GOP leaders fear that the perceived weakness at the top of the ticket of Mitt Romney and Kurt Bills may discourage Republican voters from going to the polls.

REUTERS/Brian Snyder

With Minnesota conservatives less than excited about Republican nominee Mitt Romney, the marriage amendment has potential to animate this key constituency.

Romney was soundly rejected by Minnesota Republicans on caucus night, with Rick Santorum the favorite of participating party members. Also, Romney has run a nearly invisible presidential campaign in the state.

At a Humphrey Institute forum last month, the GOP’s Vin Weber expressed concern about how enthused Republicans might be on Election Day. “It’s worrisome that the top two positions don’t appear to be competitive,” he said at that time.

Other Republican leaders have expressed similar concern about GOP enthusiasm.

“I think what worries me more is how much the Ron Paul folks [will be] carrying Romney’s water in the state,” said Rhett Zenke, chairman of Winona County Republicans. Ron Paul, of course, picked up 33 of Minnesota’s 40 GOP national delegates.

It’s possible, then, that the party sees the amendments — especially the marriage amendment — as a way to inspire some in the base.

But that’s a dicey decision. Throughout the campaign, there has been considerable speculation about how the amendments will play in the suburbs. Some DFL candidates say the amendments prove that GOP legislators are “extreme.”

“In a lot of suburban districts, I think opposition to the [marriage] amendment is probably the dominant position – not overwhelmingly dominant, but still the dominant position,” Tom Horner, a consultant for the “Vote No” campaign, told Politics in Minnesota.

Horner, a former Republican who was the Independence Party candidate for governor two years ago, said that the marriage amendment in particular is “creating a lot of challenges” for suburban Republican candidates.

But do the amendments line up directly with party voting?

Amendment impact hard to measure

It’s hard to tell just how much the amendments and voting patterns might affect legislative races across the state.

Incumbent DFL Rep. Patti Fritz, for example, defeated Dan Kaiser by 152 votes in 2010. The two are matched up again in District 24B (the Faribault area. Neither candidate is hearing much about the amendments while door-knocking. But, both say, turnout is key.

Kaiser, when asked, states his support for the amendments.

Fritz opposes them but offers a more subtle position on the marriage issue. She supports one-man, one-woman marriage, like current state law, but opposes the marriage amendment, calling it “a complete waste of time.”

She said her opposition to the amendment has put her in hot water with Catholic priests in the district. The church’s position, she said, caused her to wonder, “Why don’t you see me about the poor, the hungry and the sick?”

Which brings us to the impact of the Catholic Church.

MinnPost photo by Beth Hawkins

Archbishop John Nienstedt and the Catholic Church have made passage of the marriage amendment a priority.

Senate District 28 includes Winona State University and a large Catholic population. Both GOP incumbent Sen. Jeremy Miller — the lone Republican to oppose the voting amendment — and DFL challenger Jack Krage try to avoid the amendments while campaigning.

But Krage does say that he believes “there are many Catholics who are going to vote ‘no’ [on the marriage amendment] but they’re not going to talk about it.’’

Which brings everything back to the beginning.

The amendments may not create a huge voter surge in the state, but in the privacy of the voting booth, they may have a huge impact on small races.

With the lifting of a gag order in his wrongful-termination case against the Minnesota Senate, Michael Brodkorb has demonstrated that Brodkorb un-gagged is Brodkorb unplugged. 

In an interview with MinnPost on Sunday, the former communications director for the Republican caucus, dismissed for his personal relationship with former Majority Leader Amy Koch, recounted in detail the events that led to his dismissal and disparaged senators who were once his friends and employers.

He made his case that Senate leaders bungled and continue to mismanage the situation, costing the taxpayers plenty in legal fees to defend the civil lawsuit.

Brodkorb said that he was inches away from a settlement this summer when he met with two key lawmakers, Dave Senjem and Julianne Ortmann. “Both Senator Senjem and Senator Ortman said they wanted this resolved,” he said.

But the settlement talks, ordered by a federal magistrate, fell apart in September. That development, Brodkorb said, “absolutely calls into question who is in control at the Minnesota Senate.”

Federal Magistrate Arthur Boylan lifted the gag order in the case Friday and Brodkorb began giving interviews over the weekend to local news organizations, making his case in public first the first time. The lawsuit is now in the motion phase before Boylan.

Details events

In his MinnPost interview, Brodkorb described events that led up to his dismissal in December and charged that a triumvirate of GOP senators -- Geoff Michel, Chris Gerlach and David Hann – were involved in a power grab.

After confiding in September of last year to former Senate Chief of Staff Cullen Sheehan about his relationship with Koch, Brodkorb said, the three senators then used that information to oust Koch and take control of the Senate.

“The objective was to organize, plan and plot an absolute palace coup,” he said. “Take out Senator Koch and anyone close to her, which was me.”

Michel, Gerlach and Hann declined to respond. Koch, citing the lawsuit, said she couldn’t comment directly. But when asked if being the first female majority leader affected her tenure, she said: “Pro and con, on both sides of the aisle.”

Koch also wouldn’t comment on whether she developed GOP Senate adversaries because of legislative issues. But Senate Republicans were divided on her and Brodkorb’s work on the Vikings stadium and her support of expanding “racino” gambling.

Brodkorb also riled some of his colleagues during the last months of his job by acting more like a Senate leader than a Senate aide. Brodkorb’s response Sunday to that charge was typical: Go on the offensive. “My place was to be an advocate for and follow through on the directions and instructions of all the members of the leadership and all the members of the caucus,” he said in the MinnPost interview. “I have no problem comparing the work product of the Minnesota Senate from when I was there to what’s there right now.”

Anticipated opponents

Like any good political strategist, when the dispute first surfaced Brodkorb anticipated his opponents’ next move and had an answer to those who wanted him fired. “There is a clear policy and procedure on how this situation should be handled.  Minnesota Senate policy 2.35,” he recites. “I was aware of this policy. It specifically says the Senate does not require termination to avoid the manager subordinate relationship.” 

Brodkorb had the policy ready to email. He also says he has supporting documents and other files.

And, he says, he has the ultimate weapon and is prepared to use it to win his case: The names of other legislators who were involved in similar personal relationships with subordinates.

Further, Brodkorb offered no hope to those who want this story to go away, who want to plug the flow of tax dollars – already at $100,000 – going to the legal defense of the Senate.

And now instead of the two sides talking to each other, at least one is talking to the media. Still, even Brodkorb sounded tired: “This is going to go on for some time.” 

Two years ago, Minnesota legislative candidates frequently were greeted with anger at doors across the state.

Contempt of bank bailouts and Obamacare were the first words candidates heard as they worked their districts. That anger, often fired by the Tea Party Patriots, was a key factor in sweeping Republicans to control of both the House and Senate.

This year, the tenor seems different, according to many candidates running in many of the 28 highly contested races that MinnPost is following as the DFL and GOP battle for control of the 2013 Legislature.  

(You can check out those races in our MinnPost interactive graphic, which allows you to review a range of scenarios that look at whether the DFL will regain the majorities it lost in 2010 or whether Republicans will keep control of both houses. You also can share your predictions with others and learn about any of the 201 legislative races.)

A cooling period

To be sure, there’s still disgust directed at many pols — mostly about “partisan bickering” — but the red-hot rage seems considerably cooler.

Early in his campaign, for example, DFLer Roger Erickson, who is running against first-term Republican incumbent Dave Hancock in District 2A, said he was hearing unkind remarks about Obamacare. But in June, after the Supreme Court ruling upholding the federal health-care reform law,” the issue went almost completely away,” he said.

Hancock supports the notion that big, federal issues aren’t affecting his race the way they did two years ago, when he defeated three-term DFL incumbent Brita Sailer.

Obamacare, he agrees, “doesn’t have the resonance it had.”

Walter Hudson, an activist with the North Star Tea Party Patriots, however, begs to differ — in a way.

“I couldn’t disagree more with the assessment that Obamacare has disappeared as an issue,’’ he said. “On the contrary, the Supreme Court decision ruling framed the debate in starker terms than ever before. It is no longer just about health care but the capacity of the federal government to mandate anything imaginable. … through taxation.”

Still, Hudson agrees that the strength of the Tea Party has been “blunted.”

There is some indication that the Tea Party has been divided — though not defeated — by a combo package of the Republican Party, social conservatives and the Ron Paul movement.

Sustaining anger not easy

When Marianne Stebbins, leader of the Paul movement in Minnesota, views the political landscape in Minnesota she still sees anger, but …

MinnPost photo by Brian Halliday

Marianne Stebbins

“Sustained anger takes a lot of energy,” Stebbins said. “Some of those pitchfork-wielding Tea Partiers were absorbed by the GOP where they are working for the bailout-supporting presidential ticket. The more independent or principled ones jumped on board with Ron Paul’s campaign where they poured their hearts out. … I still see a lot of anger but it is subdued. Not accepting, but weary.”

Two years ago, everything seemed so simple.

The Tea Party welcomed all who were seeking limited government and tight fiscal management.

People coming to Tea Party events were asked to check at the door all other issues, such as abortion and gay marriage.

Tea Partiers and Ron Paul supporters still generally have empathy for each other, although there is growing speculation among the Paul folks that the Tea Party has been taken over by Christian fundamentalists and social conservatives. In at least some cases, the Paul “objectivists” have been told they’re not welcome at Tea Party meetings.

Take a moment for a definition of “objectivist,” which, to some of us, is a new term in contemporary politics.

The term comes from Ayn Rand, author of “Atlas Shrugged” and “The Fountainhead,” which border on the biblical for some Paul followers.

According to Rand herself, objectivism means “reality exists as an objective absolute — facts are facts, independent of man’s feelings, wishes, hopes or fears.”

Objectivists apparently rub some fundamentalist Christians the wrong way, which has led to the concern among the Paul crowd about the direction the Tea Party is headed.

'Takeover' disputed

The Tea Party’s Hudson disputes this “takeover business.”

MinnPost photo by Terry Gydesen

Walter Hudson

“Checking social issues at the door does not preclude picking them up on your way out,” Hudson said, “and certainly doesn’t preclude supporting a candidate who shares your views. What the Paulites saw was interest among Tea Partiers in candidates like Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann.

“They took this to mean that the Tea Party had been ‘taken over’ by social conservatives. It has not,” he said. “There are simply social conservatives in the mix, working together with libertarians and others on the economic and constitutional issues they all agree on.”

God, Rand, Paul, Mitt Romney — what does all this heady stuff mean in the hard-core world of elective politics?

Romney at the top of the GOP ticket is off-putting to both Tea Partiers and the Paul followers. The Tea Party’s Hudson believes some will sit out the election, or at least not vote in the presidential race.

“But I believe the impact of the movement will still be powerful in down-ticket races where activists have had a greater impact in determining who is on the ballot,” Hudson said.

The Paul group, as evidenced by its control of the delegation at the Republican National Convention, has shown, in many cases, to be remarkably adept at taking over leadership positions within some congressional districts within the GOP.

But just how effective they’ve been in leadership is questionable. For that matter, just how loyal most Paulites are to the Republican Party is questionable.

According to some GOP activists, there are two sorts of Paul followers when it comes to the party.

“There are builders and destroyers,” said John Kolb, an active Republican volunteer in Senate District 45, which includes Robbinsdale, Golden Valley and Plymouth.

The builders are working with longtime Republicans on such things as get-out-the vote efforts, which are key to the outcomes in legislative races.

The destroyers are inactive, Kolb says, either for reasons of “incompetence” or “deliberate destructive behavior.”

When they work together, Paul and Tea Party forces can deliver big results, especially at local levels.

'Combo' did in Rep. Smith

After 22 years in the House, for example, moderate Republican Steve Smith of Mound felt the wrath of the combo package of Tea Partiers and the Paulites in House District 33B. First, Smith lost the endorsement to Cindy Pugh, a founder of the Southwest Metro Tea Party. Then, she defeated him in the August primary.

Pugh now presents herself mostly as a fiscal conservative. But in the past, some of her website postings have gone far past dollars and civility. This spring, for example, she posted a photo of black-robed women (presumably Muslim) next to a black, plastic garbage bag.

On her site, Pugh wrote: “Disturbing that women and little girls are okay with dressing like this!”

After City Pages reported on the photo and her commentary, it disappeared from the Pugh site.

Smith still is saddened by his defeat, but he understands it.

Rep. Steve Smith

“The world is run by those who show up,” the longtime legislator said. “Her folks showed up. Mine didn’t. … The Republicans I knew have their work cut out for them. They have to start showing up at the meetings and at the polls if they want to take their party back.”

The Tea Party is filled with “extremists and worse,” Smith said.

“But here’s my problem,” he continued. “I was in the middle of the road. If you’re in the middle of the road, you’re going to get hit by the bus. Right now, it seems like you’d better be in one lane or the other or the bus is going to get you.”

It should be noted that Pugh didn’t just win the support of Tea Partiers and the Paul supporters. She got the endorsement of Michele Bachmann and also House Speaker Kurt Zellers, who clearly was more concerned with Smith’s independent streak than with some of Pugh’s extremist tendencies.

The bus crushed Smith. But it’s unclear who was driving the bus. And it’s not clear if winning the support of Tea Party and Paul activists will pay off at the polls this time.

In some races, DFLers are hopeful that the Tea Party/Paul label will work against their opponent.

For example, in District 51B, DFL candidate Laurie Halverson is running against Doug Wardlow – and the Tea Party. “Eagan doesn’t need to be represented by the voice of the Tea Party,” Halverson tells potential voters.

That sounds like the exact opposite message that was a winner two years ago.

Evolution in progress

And we'll see where the Tea Party evolution takes it.

A Tea Party gathering in Arden Hills last week, for example, drew roughly 400 to hear from speakers and to watch the vice presidential debate.

MinnPost photo by James Nord

North Metro TEA Party Patriot Coordinator Jack Rogers hosted the event, which drew  about 400.

Jack Rogers, a coordinator with the North Metro TEA Party Patriots, said the group was larger than the usual 250 people that attend monthly meetings at the Blue Fox Bar and Grill. He described the audience as an eclectic mix of Republicans, Democrats, independents, Tea Partiers and Paul supporters.

The keynote speaker, an attorney named KrisAnne Hall, gave the Tea Partiers a history lesson in the Constitution and the foundations of America. Conservative radio talk-show hosts Tom Emmer and Bob Davis were also featured to discuss the debate.

Emmer, the GOP’s gubernatorial candidate in 2010, said he believes the Tea Party is becoming more refined.

“I just think they’re becoming more sophisticated in terms of the political process,” he said, surveying the crowd. “If this is any indication, the Tea Party is alive and well in Minnesota. I just think they’re becoming a lot more sophisticated in the art of politics in the political process.”

Rogers also insisted that the Tea Party has grown past the primal anger that inspired it in 2010. “The core group of people was frustrated that the politicians were not listening, and when somebody doesn’t listen to them, the people act, and they acted and what has been born is not going to go away,” he said. “We’re going to go through our childhood, we’re going to go through our teenage years, and we’re going to grow into adults … and eventually … the Tea Party will be like the normal party.”

That frustration appears to continue to be a motivating factor in what Rogers referred to as a four-election-cycle process to make the Tea Party mainstream.

“I feel like we have 30 days to change the direction of the election, and I am talking to anybody and everybody I can because I think if Obama gets elected again, life as we know it in America will cease to exist,” Jolie Lahlum, a Lino Lakes resident, said as she walked into the gathering.

“Anger is not driving me. It’s the frustration … nobody in Washington cares about America,” Liz Wagner of White Bear Lake said as she left. “They would sell it down the river and not bat an eye.”

It’s a high-stakes poker game to determine who will control the 2013 Minnesota Legislature, and independent groups that want to influence your vote are going all in.

When the last pre-election finance reports are filed next week, they will be record-breaking.

Not only are the political parties and independent groups spending more than ever to influence legislative races but they also are spending at levels usually associated with a major statewide race, such as governor.

Republican-leaning groups will have spent more on legislative races than they did in 2010 on behalf of gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer. Groups supporting DFL legislative candidates, it appears, will spend almost as much as they spent to support Gov. Mark Dayton’s candidacy.

The groups fall into two general categories.

The first is a clearly identified party unit (such as the DFL Party, the Republican Party of Minnesota, and the DFL and Republican House and Senate caucuses.)

Partisan groups’ spending unlimited

The second category consists of outside, independent groups that carry no party label but are partisan by their very nature. The independent expenditures are funded by unlimited contributions from individuals or corporations.

The biggest independent player in the legislative races is the Alliance for a Better Minnesota. By the time the last check is cashed, ABM will have spent more than $1.5 million.

Much of it will go for mail and broadcast ads aimed at many of the 28 competitive races that MinnPost has identified as key in determining which party will control the House and Senate. (You can check our interactive guide to the races here.)

The DFL Party and the DFL House and Senate caucuses will each match that spending level, legally coordinating with ABM for maximum effectiveness. Although independent expenditure and party units can and do work together, they cannot talk to or coordinate efforts with candidates.

A best-guess estimate is that, altogether, the DFL will spend almost $5 million on legislative races by supporting the party’s nominees and attacking their opponents.

According to DFL Party officials, the spending caps on House and Senate races represent only a small part of the expenditures in targeted districts.

Ken Martin, DFL Party chair, said that those caps — “about $38,000’’ for a House race and “about $60,000” for a Senate race — represent only the amount the individual candidates can spend. In targeted races, he said, the DFL alone will spend as much as $150,000 to $200,000.

A mailer from the Republican Party attacks DFL
Sen. Jim Carlson.

On the GOP side, three independent groups have raised and spent the most:

• The Pro Jobs Majority, the independent expenditure arm of the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce.

• Minnesota's Future, which was formed in 2010 to promote the candidacy of Tom Emmer.  Contributions come mainly in the five-figure amount from Minnesota businesses.

• The Freedom Club, which describes itself as a “group of like minded conservative individuals dedicated to preserving economic prosperity and Americas future.”

Minnesota’s Future, alone, will report more than $1 million in contributions. 

Along with Republican legislative caucuses and the Republican Party, spending on behalf of Republican candidates will approach $4 million. The party itself, which has had well-publicized financial problems, has limited resources for candidate support. Often, a mailing or ad claiming Republican Party sponsorship is paid by caucus money flowing, legally, through the party structure.

Candidates not always pleased with ‘help’

Even though candidates can’t coordinate efforts with outside groups, that doesn’t mean the candidates aren’t aware of what they’re doing. Nor are they necessarily pleased with them.

Rep. John Persell

"I've made it clear I, don't want anybody doing that stuff,'' said DFL Rep. John Persell in House District 5A in the Bemidji area, where two current legislators are battling.

He was referring to a piece of mail featuring a distorted photo of his GOP opponent, Rep. Larry Howes. "I got that piece of mail. It was from the DFL, and I immediately put in a call to Ken Martin and said, 'I don't want that stuff up here.' The words were OK, but the distorted photo was ridiculous. That sort of stuff may work in the cities, but I don't think it works up here.”

Howes says he and Persell have avoided negative claims in their own ads but that the outside ads are in the classic negative genre.

"They [the DFL] had one against me really stretching the facts with a real distorted picture of me,” Howes said. “Not only was the picture that grainy black-and-white, but I had sort of a shrunken head. I looked at that and said, 'Geez, I wouldn't vote for a guy who looks like that.' ''

Rep. Larry Howes

Howes estimates that more money, mainly from outside sources, will be spent this time by both sides than in any of his previous seven, upward of $175,000. 

That is not surprising. While redistricting gives the District 5 a DFL lean, the Senate and both House races are pitting incumbent against incumbent, meaning both parties will fight to the finish.

It’s a similar story in Senate District 28, where DFL newcomer Jack Krage is facing first-term incumbent Jeremy Miller. The Republican Party sent out a mailer tying Krage to the Alliance for a Better Minnesota. The pamphlet reads, “Jack Krage: A rubber stamp for special interests groups with an extreme agenda.”  

 Miller said somebody had showed him the mailing after it went out. “Of course, I have no idea,” he said. “We’re trying to run a positive campaign, and my opponent from the beginning has decided to go negative.”

If the medium sends a message about the importance of these races, the number of television ads for legislative contests is significant.  The Alliance for a Better Minnesota spent almost $700,000 on TV ads with an anti-Republican message. Republicans are using TV, too.   

In 14B in St. Cloud, Zach Dorholt, the DFLer running against incumbent Republican Rep. King Banaian, said he was “surprised” to see TV ads going up against him.

“It’s the classic creepy photo of me, very grainy,” he said. “It says I’m a life-long political operative and that I fell asleep during economic classes.” He didn’t fall asleep, he says.  Furthermore, “I don’t think it matters.  If anything, it might help my name recognition.”

Negative ads common because they work

But negative ads do matter, and often they do work.

It’s “because these candidates have actual records.  No matter what the skepticism, we are accurate,” said Chris Tiedeman, a director of the Minnesota’s Future campaign.  “These are negative pieces based on a real record.”

He points to a flier sent to voters in House District 53A in Woodbury, opposing DFL candidate JoAnn Ward. It says: “JoAnn Ward’s political allies created a bad business climate in Minnesota. … Then her family business packed up for a better tax climate. They moved the business and the jobs to Wisconsin.”

The Minnesota's Future-funded ad attacking JoAnn Ward, candidate for Minnesota House district 53A.

The mailing, says Tiedeman, is effective and truthful. “It defines what this campaign statewide is all about — jobs and the jobs climate,” he said. “The tax and regulatory climate is a reflection of bad policy. And the fact that another state attracted this business away from ours is telling.”

Ward’s website has responded to the ad in kind. Referring to Republican “special interests,” she claims it was bad policy created by Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty that hindered her small business and that his own economic development advisers told her to seek out re-locating to Wisconsin.

The Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board lists 31 independent expenditure committees, in addition to political committees and political party units, the result of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling three years ago that gave business and unions the go-ahead to create vehicles for unlimited spending and contributions. 

Large and small, clumsy or slick, these groups are eager to jump into the electoral process. They defend their output as the personification of free speech.

And despite voter and candidate fatigue, with their spending, they are saying: The more speech, the better.

With a sense of destiny, the DFL is missing no opportunity to make gains in the Republican-dominated western suburbs.

Sen. David Hann

The DFL is moving aggressively to capitalize on concerns about a possible conflict of interest involving third-term Republican Sen. David Hann, who is being challenged in District 48 in Eden Prairie by Laurie McKendry, a small-business owner.

Hann — who chairs the Senate Health and Human Services Committee, which regulates insurance providers — recently took a position with Boys and Tyler Financial Group, an Eden Prairie company that sells such products as health insurance.

“The reality is that you have to call into question someone’s ethics when the job they are paid to do conflicts with his Senate chairmanship of a committee that provides oversight to the industry,” said Ken Martin, chair of the Minnesota DFL Party.

Even though the election is less than a week away, Martin says the party will make some independent expenditures to criticize Hann’s position. “Lots of stuff is going to happen,” Martin promised.  “Mail, TV and other paid advertisements.”

Hann was contacted for comment but said he was on the way to the hospital with his wife, who has been receiving chemotherapy treatments. Hann’s website notes his new position with Boys and Tyler but doesn’t offer specifics of what the job involves.

Hann’s re-election battle — like the Senate District 49 race in neighboring Edina, and their companion House seats — will not be an easy win for Republicans. According to Martin, such suburbs as Eden, Prairie, Edina and Minnetonka have been trending, albeit slowly, from red to purple.

“It’s the changing demographics,” Martin said. “There’s a huge influx of Somali voters in Eden Prairie and other minority populations have exploded.  All second-rings suburbs are seeing this.”  

Laurie McKendry

Hann’s opponent, McKendry, says voters in the district are more socially and fiscally moderate than the current crop of Republicans, whose mantra has been “no new taxes” and who propelled a ban on gay marriage onto the ballot as a constitutional amendment. “These things don’t register here in the western suburbs,” she said.

The Hann-McKendry matchup was not on MinnPost's list of hotly contested races to watch to determine who will control the Legislature, but the race has heated up over Hann's new job.

The DFL is convinced that the race has become very competitive and will spend some money to make it so.

In the final days before the election, it appears that the Republican grip on the state Legislature is slipping away.

The DFL appears poised to regain control of the state Senate, although most believe the GOP will retain a slight majority in the House. Those findings are based on interviews with a wide swath of candidates and insiders from both parties who are following the races closely — and on MinnPost's analysis of 28 highly competitive races.

But an array of factors — ranging from how well the marriage amendment plays in the suburbs to redistricting to the massive influx of spending by independent groups to the state’s overall turnout — could put the DFL back in control of the House as well.

Never has so much been spent on state legislative races, and seldom have so many of those races remained so tight leading up to Election Day.

A swing of seven seats is needed for the DFL to take back a majority in the House, and a net gain of four seats would give the DFL back its historic control of the Senate. Currently, Republicans control both chambers, the Senate 37 to 30, and the House 72-61. Because of redistricting, all 201 legislative seats are up this time.

How MinnPost’s 28 races are shaping up

MinnPost has been closely following 28 of the most competitive legislative races that insiders believe could determine which party would have control. (See our interactive guide here.)

Of the 12 Senate contests, the DFL appears poised to win three Senate races (a pickup of two seats) and the Republicans are likely to retain three seats. The other six include three slight leads for the DFL and one for the GOP with the remaining two races "coin flips" as to who will win. One prominent DFL insider believes the party has a lock on 32 seats, which would mean it would need only a net gain of two among the six MinnPost races and several others the DFL is targeting.

Of the 16 House races MinnPost is tracking, the DFL looks in good shape in six House races (a pickup of four, including two open seats) while the GOP is expected to win four (including one open seat).  The other six appear too close to call. But the DFL would need only three others — either from our list or others the party sees as winnable.

And when it comes to other legislative seats in play, the DFL is targeting lots of "E" city seats. Three are in Eagan, which sent three Republicans — Sen. Ted Daley and Reps. Diane Anderson and Doug Wardlow — to the Capitol in 2010. All three Republicans appear vulnerable this time around.

But Eagan isn’t the only suburb where political change might be occurring.

The same is true in both Edina and Eden Prairie, where the DFL hopes to win races not on the MinnPost list. GOP Sen. David Hann and Rep. Keith Downey, now seeking a Senate seat, are in tough races against Laurie McKendry and Melisa Franzen, respectively. And former Republican state Rep. Ron Erhardt, is running strongly, as a DFLer, for the seat Downey vacated.

‘Extremism,’ marriage amendment factors

A big factor in those suburban races appears to be “extremism,” best exemplified by the marriage amendment. Moderate suburban Republicans are troubled that GOP legislators moved the party agenda into the bedroom.

For example, McKendry, who presents herself as a moderate DFLer, has hammered Hann on being “an extremist.” In support of her charge, she points to Hann’s strong support for the marriage amendment, his endorsement of GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum and his suggestion that Catholic Archbishop John Nienstedt supports “socialism.”

The marriage amendment also could be a factor in legislative districts that include college campuses.

At a Tuesday rally featuring former President Bill Clinton at the University of Minnesota, it was opposition to the amendment — more than the presidential campaign — that seems to stir the emotions of the students.

If opposition to the marriage amendment inspires large student turnouts, there would be significant impact on several key races.

District 14B, for example, includes St.Cloud State University, where GOP incumbent King Banaian is in a very tight race with DFLer Zach Dorholt. In Senate District 24, in the Northfield area, DFLer Kevin Dahle could be boosted over GOP rival Mike Dudley, assuming the amendment inspires students at Carleton and St. Olaf to pay close attention to down-ballot races.

Of course, Election Days are filled with “shoulds,”  “woulds” and “coulds.”

‘Big picture’ elements

Based on interviews with numerous sources, most of whom agreed to talk only on background, the” big picture” elements of this election cycle include the following:

• President Obama’s coattails aren’t nearly as long as they were in 2008, when DFLers saw their legislative power grow.

• The mood of voters is much more “moderate” than the conservative view in 2010, when the GOP not only took over in the House but also won control in the Senate for the first time in almost a half-century.

In part, that moderating tone is created by the large turnouts that occur in presidential election years. Large turnouts mute the voices of extremists.

• Lack of unified leadership in the GOP Senate caucus is leading to some of Republicans’ Election Day problems. (That divided leadership situation dates to the 2011 fall of Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch, which was followed by the rise of several small GOP factions in the Senate. Recall, it was Koch who received much of the credit for putting together the Senate candidates and campaigns that proved victorious two years ago.) House GOP leaders are much more unified.

• Then, there is “the mom factor.” Moderate women who are running may have a slight advantage, especially in the suburbs. Voters seem to believe that most women won’t spend as much time in partisan showmanship as the men do.

These big-picture developments play out in small ways, too.

For example, in the new House District 5A, which includes such places as Bemidji and Walker, two colorful incumbents — Republican Larry Howes and DFLer John Persell — are squaring off in what most believe will be a close race.

Howes is looking at presidential outcomes to handicap his race.

Larry Howes

“This will not be 2008,” said Howes of the year that Obama swept to a 10-point victory in Minnesota. “If it’s like 2004 [when John Kerry carried Minnesota by 3 percentage points], it’s going to be close. If it’s like 2000 [when Al Gore carried Minnesota by just 2 points], I win.”

Howes, unlike the majority in his caucus, supports big bonding bills. That gives him some support among blue-collar workers.

On the other hand, Persell has the backing of tribal leaders in a district in which American Indians make up 19 percent of the population.

Back and forth it goes, although most “insiders” interviewed by MinnPost believe Howes will eke out a close win in a district that the MinnPost analysis shows has a DFL history.

John Persell

Races such as the Persell-Howes matchup are being played out across the state, sometimes in confounding ways.

For example, the MinnPost analysis — based on voting practices in the last three elections — shows a heavy DFL lean in the new Senate District 5. But redistricting has put DFL incumbent Tom Saxhaug up against Republican first-term incumbent John Carlson. Despite the three-term Saxhaug typically breezing to victories, even DFLers are calling this race “extremely close.”

This is one of nine contests that DFLers consider “swing races” for control of the Senate. DFLers believe they need to win only two or three of them to regain Senate control. It should be noted that many of the DFL-designated swing races are not among MinnPost’s 12 Senate races.

Senate races

How do MinnPost’s 12 Senate races shape up?

Again, based on numerous interviews, DFLers appear to be running very well in the following races:

• District 36, where DFLer John Hoffman faces incumbent Republican Ben Kruse.
• District 37, where former state Rep Alice Johnson is running against incumbent Republican Pam Wolf.
• And District 44, where DFL incumbent Terri Bonoff is paired with the GOP’s David Gaither.

DFLers appear to hold slight advantages in the following Senate races:

• District 20, where DFLer Kevin Dahle faces Republican Mike Dudley.
• District 24, where DFLer Vicki Jensen is paired with Republican Vern Swedin.
• District 51, where DFLer Jim Carlson is running against incumbent Republican Ted Daley.

Meantime, the GOP candidates seem to be running well in the following races:

• District 14, where incumbent Republican John Pederson faces DFLer Jerry McCarter.
• District 26, which matches incumbent Republican Carla Nelson and the DFL’s Kenneth Moen.
• And District 28, where incumbent Republican Jeremy Miller and the DFL’s Jack Krage are competing.

Additionally, in District 53, GOP incumbent Ted Lillie seems to have a slight advantage over DFLer Susan Kent.

That leaves two coin-flip Senate races: incumbents Saxhaug and Carlson in District 5, and incumbent Republican Joe Gimse versus incumbent DFLer Lyle Koenen in District 17.

House races

On to the House, where MinnPost has followed 16 competitive races that could decide control.

Rep. Erin Murphy, DFL-St. Paul, was charged with recruiting candidates for her party, and she believes her recruits reflect the new mood of Minnesota voters.

“This isn’t going to be a race where you have a big pendulum swing [as 2010 was],” she said. “Minnesotans are centering. They are tired of gridlock.”

In general, she believes the DFL recruited candidates who reflect that mood.

“We looked for candidates rooted in community over party activism,” she said.

With that as backdrop, here’s how MinnPost’s 16 House races appear to be shaping up:

DFLers are running strong in:

• District 2A, where DFLer Roger Erickson, a former Baudette football coach, is running against incumbent Dave Hancock.
• District 17B, where DFLer Mary Sawatzky faces GOP incumbent Bruce Vogel.
• District 24B, where incumbent DFLer Patti Fritz is up against Republican Dan Kaiser.
• District 44B, pairing incumbent DFLer John Benson and Republican Mark Stefan.
• District 48A, where the DFL’s Yvonne Selcer is running against incumbent Republican Kirk Stensrud.
• And District 54A, where the DFL’s Dan Schoen faces Republican Derrick Lehrke and Independence Party candidate Ron Lischeid.

Republicans, meanwhile, are strong in the following races:

• District 1B, where Republican incumbent Debra Kiel faces DFLer Marc Demers.
• District 11B, pairing Republican Ben Wiener and DFLer Tim Faust.
• District 27A, where Republican incumbent Rich Murray faces DFLer Shannon Savick and the Independence Party's William Wagner.
• And District 39B, where incumbent Republican Kathy Lohmer is running against DFLer Tom DeGree.

Here, too, there are a bunch of races that seem extremely tight:

• District 5A, with incumbents Howes and Persell.
• District 5B, pairing incumbent Republican Carolyn McElfatrick and incumbent DFLer Tom Anzelc.
• District 14B, with incumbent Republican King Banaian versus DFLer Zach Dorholt.
• District 49B, which pits Republican Terry Jacobson against DFLer Paul Rosenthal.
• District 51A, one of those Eagan races that matches incumbent Republican Diane Anderson and DFLer Sandra Masin.
• District 51B, also an Eagan race pitting Republican incumbent Doug Wardlow against the DFL’s Laurie Halverson.

Understand that none of these races is expected to be a blowout, and money continues to pour into legislative races, at record levels, across the state. You can check out our report on spending by independent groups and party caucuses.  You can also see how much legislative candidates have raised and spent in MinnPost’s 28 featured races here.