Michelle MacDonald

Michelle MacDonald’s tangles with the Republican Party at the State Fair have topped any sideshow along the Midway.

The latest controvery for MacDonald, the GOP's endorsed candidate for the Supreme Court,  began on Thursday with a confrontation with a security guard at the party's State Fair booth— and ended Friday with what she described as a “threatening phone call” from a party representative.

Earlier, McDonald had been barred from entering the party’s State Fair booth because of her pending court appearance for a DWI charge. The ban was the most recent move by the party to distance itself from the candidate, whose legal problems party leaders learned of post-endorsement.

On Thursday, MacDonald crossed the party line, so to speak, by defying that order and entering the GOP’s State Fair booth. She promptly encountered veteran security guard Dan Seaman, a self-described “conflicts solution person,” who gently but firmly escorted her to the sidewalk.

Then, on Friday morning, MacDonald said she got a “threatening” phone call from an attorney asking her to get out of the race. In an interview, MacDonald said he was “an attorney I’ve known for years [that] I consider a friend of mine. He said he had an offer for me from the party and I had to comply by noon.” 

The blog politics.mn identified the attorney as Michael Burns, and posted a recording of the conversation that MacDonald made. 

MacDonald responded by digging in her heels further. In a letter to GOP party chair Keith Downey, she wrote, “I understand you have given me a deadline, Mr. Downey, of noon today to write you a letter repudiating my endorsement, and once that is done, the executive committee will meet with me…. I am writing to inform you that I will not repudiate my endorsement by the Republican Party of Minnesota to run for Minnesota Supreme Court, and that the Delegates matter.”

In a subsequent email to party delegates and officers, Downey reiterated the party’s position of limited support for MacDonald. “She is our endorsed candidate. Period,” he wrote.  “Our state party constitution pledges our support of endorsed candidates but there is no explicit commitment of specific resources.”

MacDonald says that now the matter has transcended the question of supporting an endorsed candidate. “The issue now becomes political free speech,” she said.

A political candidate connecting with voters at the Minnesota State Fair has a job not dissimilar to the host of an infomercial. First, you have to connect with the customer personally. Next, you must convince them the product is worth their time. Then, you have to close the deal.

Republican candidate for governor Jeff Johnson, a man whom even DFL party chair Ken Martin describes as affable, may possess natural assets to make that tricky first connection — but making the sale is the goal. In an interview at his State Fair booth, he describes his approach to politics at the great Minnesota get-together. 

What’s the best way to connect with fairgoers? 
I never stand inside the booth. I’m always out in front of the booth. We have a steady stream. It’s very seldom that I’m standing there waiting for someone to come.  It’s just being out front there, being very accessible, and trying to move about from person to person.

What are you hearing from people? 
I’m hearing everything under the sun. There’s no real serious pattern. We have a lot of Republicans come and say, “Way to go” and ask, “How are you going to win?”  I get a lot of non-Republicans who come up and just want to meet me and hear what I’m about. Issue-wise, it’s all over the place. Health care and jobs are probably the two most common things that come up. Second amendment comes up from some people. And I’ve had issues come up that I haven’t even thought about before.

For example? 
It was just some sort of retirement benefit tax, something I’ve just never looked into. It gives me one thing to go back to the office and learn about. Somebody else wanted to talk about — they had made some changes to dog breeding laws.

Are you learning anything that you might use in your campaigning over the next months?
This just solidifies what I think I already knew. When you talk to people you need to personalize it. They need to hear not just the numbers that we as Republicans are so good at giving people the facts and the logic. They want to hear how it will affect them and how it affects other people. That has been really common. That is an important campaign piece that we as Republicans are never very good at and need to be better at. We need to speak to people’s hearts as well as their minds. I’m going to be very focused as governor. I am going to be very focused on two or three big things. The achievement gap and real education reform is going to be one of them. That is as personal and as people-based as you can possibly get.

Has any fairgoer talked to you about the achievement gap, in so many words? 
A few have. I’ve had a handful of people from Minneapolis who say, “Tell me what you think of education.”  I’ll talk about it. They have lived it. Their kid is either in a failing school or they’ve removed their kid from a failing school and they want to know what I would do about that as governor. I don’t know that anyone has ever used the term achievement gap but it’s always about their kid or their grandkid who’s been in a school that’s not serving them well.

Do you get approached by Mark Dayton supporters?
We do. We’ve had very few angry people, but we’ve had a couple. I talk to them for a little bit and say, “Hey, we don’t agree. Sorry.”

Are there perceptions of you that you feel compelled to correct?
There’s a commercial airing, that’s the only thing that’s out there right now. There’s no positive commercials for either of us. The only thing they’re seeing is the attack ad. I’ve had a few people who come up to me and say, “Are you really the Tea Party candidate,” or, “Did you really vote to cut education funding so you could help out your corporate friends.” People have taken note and they don’t just trust it. They want to come and hear from the candidate. It’s encouraging that people are asking me rather than just assuming it’s true.

What are one of your favorite fair-goer comments and one of your least favorites?
What’s my favorite fair-goer comment, I’ve got to think about that one. [An aide offers one: “I’m voting for you Jeff.”]  Yeah, that’s it, "I’m voting for you, Jeff." That’s a good one. The least favorite fair-goer comment I can’t repeat. That was couple of days ago. It had a choice ‘F’ word in it.

The Minnesota State Fair and the governor of the state of Minnesota form a match made in heaven. Fairgoers want to see and be seen with the leader of their state. And even a reticent campaigner like Gov. Mark Dayton has a contact with voters that’s assured to be welcoming. 

In an interview early Friday morning, Dayton downplayed his drawing power. He was on his way to the DFL Party booth and suggested that, given the hour, there would few people there to greet him. He was wrong. The instant he appeared, a line of people two-dozen deep materialized. They talked, he listened, and then he explained to me how those interactions suited his campaign style.

How do you work the State Fair?
I’ve been coming to the Fair since I was probably six or seven years old. I loved the Fair as a civilian and I’ve done every campaign here. It’s part of the tradition. I stay at the DFL booth. I like the DFL booth because people choose if they want to come and encounter me. It’s not like the some of the county fairs or other events where you’re interrupting other people’s activities and space.

How do you connect with people?
I’m listening to people. They tend to be mostly DFLers, so I don’t get exactly a random sampling of the fair population. Usually people have something they want to say. So I listen. I’m here to listen to people. I certainly engage in the conversation but most of all — it’s true on the campaign trail, it’s true in serving in public office — people want a chance to be heard and be recognized for their concerns. I spend most of my time listening.

Have people brought up specific issues?
The conversations tend to be fairly brief, but education, very much so. All day kindergarten, a number of parents of children entering kindergarten are very appreciative of all day kindergarten. The economy in general, but most of the conversations are brief and not delving into major issues. 

Have you learned anything at the Fair that may affect your campaign style?
I think there’s a sense of people that the state’s improving. And so that’s very reaffirming. And that people, they’re not confident in the future, they’re somewhat uncertain about the future. So there’s that balance between speaking of what has been improving, which I hope people will remember, and acknowledging that we have a long ways to go and a lot more work still to do. This really calibrates that sense of things. 

What are some of the stranger or kinder comments you’ve heard? 
One guy told me — paraphrasing here — that I was a vile human being and he would never vote for me in his entire life. ... “Ungodly,” that was the word he used. “You’re ungodly. You’re an ungodly person and I’ll never vote for you.”  I’ve learned not to swallow those kinds of barbs, but it’s not something I particularly enjoy.

Dayton hesitated when asked to recall a nice comment. Later, at the DFL booth, he had one. Beaming, he said, “Here is the best comment I’ve heard at the Fair.” 

Dayton was talking with Dean Sorby, a fairgoer who wanted to shake his hand and thank him. Sorby’s comment: “MnSure saved our lives.”

It’s not a scientific sample, of course, but a Republican Party survey of state fairgoers reveals an interesting top concern: “protecting rights and privacy.”

The GOP offered the survey at its State Fair booth and received more than 2,200 responses. The privacy issue — stated as “to protect our private information and constitutional rights” — was the number one concern of 20 percent of the participants.

After privacy, participants ranked “family budgets” and “health care solutions” as other concerns. The last three issues of concern, in descending order, were “demand integrity, to crack down on cronyism, deception, and corruption,” “maximum opportunity, to support maximum employment and achievement, not just getting by,” and “every child deserves a chance, to focus on the kids and families being left behind in our education system.”

Republican Party chair Keith Downey said he was initially surprised that privacy emerged as a top concern when the party conducted a similar survey at its state convention in May. “But since then, the issue has become more prominent, especially for young people and on the heels of the data breaches that continue to hit the news along with the IRS and NSA scandals,” he said. 

Downey said the party developed the list of issues by talking with key political constituencies: young people, women, minorities, rural Minnesotans, and seniors. “In trying to understand what was important to them, we found the results are pretty consistent with what you see other polls,” he said.

Furthermore, Downy said, although State Fair respondents were mostly self-identified Republicans, “What’s important doesn’t depend on partisanship.”  But Downey acknowledged, “The solutions will differ depending on your political preference.”   

MinnPost file photo by Bill Kelley

Tom Horner

Another leader in the Minnesota Independence Party is gravitating toward support of a Republican statewide candidate. 

Tom Horner, the Independence Party candidate for governor in 2010, is meeting this week with GOP candidate for governor Jeff Johnson to discuss joining his campaign. Late last month, GOP U.S. Senate candidate Mike McFadden got the endorsement of former Independence Party chair Jack Uldrich.  (The Independence Party has endorsed a candidate for governor, Hannah Nicollet.)

Horner is already informally advising the Johnson campaign on policy issues.  The meeting could make his role official and bring some centrist credentials to the campaign.

“I’m not one to sit on the sidelines,” Horner said.

Why Johnson and why now? 

“Johnson will listen to people, will look to a lot of different sources for policy advice,” Horner said.  “Most important, he’ll be open to new programs, new ideas instead of just sending checks.”

In his 2010 race for governor against Dayton and GOP candidate Tom Emmer, Horner got 12 percent of the vote.  Horner believes there’s a core Independence Party vote of five percent — a significant number, though not enough to upend a race where polls suggest that Dayton is holding a nine to ten point lead.  

But there are other factors in play, Horner says. “There’s another 10 to 15 percent that moves with the Independence Party,” he said.   “This is a year that a lot of independent voters will look at the other two candidates.”

This means an opportunity for Johnson, Horner said. “He will have to go beyond some of the stereotypical Republican issues and solutions and show that he can speak to new ideas and new ways of addressing challenges,” he said.

Education, health care, and taxes are the three legs of both Johnson’s and Dayton’s campaigns.  Here is Horner’s take on those issues.    

On education: “A good case is all day kindergarten. Of course it’s a fine idea but if you’re going to spend $135 million to get kids ready, to get ready for jobs, where is the most valuable return on our money? I think Jeff Johnson is much more likely to [ask that question] rather than Mark Dayton.”

On taxes: “I wasn’t opposed to raising more revenue, but the way the governor went about it is not in the best long-term interest of Minnesota. Just adding fourth tier only reinforces a tax system that isn’t suited to a global market. Maybe we need more revenue but tilt the policy much more to tax consumption and more to reward investment.” 

On health care: “MnSure is where Republicans could play an effective role. It’s good that we’re expanding access and covering children and have a more robust marketplace.  Now how do we control the underlying drivers of health care?”

In 2010, Horner’s candidacy drew the support of such Republican luminaries as former governors Arne Carlson and Al Quie, and a slate of prominent former GOP legislators who refused to back the party’s endorsee, Tom Emmer.  The group was branded “quislings” by then GOP party chair Tony Sutton.    

Now, Horner has emerged as a power broker of the middle, and his endorsement could bring those same Republicans into the Johnson tent, where they would be welcomed with open arms. 

Horner won’t predict the likelihood of that happening, but said of his meeting with Johnson, “Our conversation … is going to say what happens next.”

It may be splitting hairs, but the DFL party’s claim that Republican candidate for governor Jeff Johnson received the Tea Party endorsement is technically incorrect. But only because the Minnesota Tea Party Alliance does not make endorsements.  

Unlike labor groups, chamber groups, and other special interest organizations that do make endorsements, the Tea Party Alliance claims that it’s a grass roots education group, according to its president, Jack Rogers.

“It’s our primary responsibility to encourage voters to do the proper evaluation of the candidate,” Rogers said. “The Minnesota Tea Party does not endorse.”

But, Rogers added, “That doesn’t mean that a lot of us don’t go to work for candidates that carry out our principles,” which he defined as promoting free markets, fiscal responsibility, and limited government. Rogers made it clear that Johnson is just such a candidate.

“It’s very good,” he said of the Tea Party Alliance relationship with Johnson.  But that’s no endorsement, he stressed.

The DFL has made no small effort to tie Johnson to the tea party. In a news release, the DFL party quoted Johnson asking for endorsement at a South Metro Tea Party event in April.  “I would be truly honored to earn your support and endorsement in this race,” Johnson said in video taken at the event.  The DFL said Johnson “was endorsed by Minnesota Tea Party Alliance President Jack Rogers at a July meeting of the North Metro Tea Party.” 

To that, Rogers responded, “They make it look like a Tea Party endorsement, but Jeff Johnson is the person I’m personally going to stand behind. I try to keep my activities and activities of the Minnesota Tea Party Alliance separate.”   

The Minnesota Tea Party Alliance has a political action committee that is registered with the state. Here too, the group differs from other PACs that follow endorsement with financial support.  

The MN Tea Party PAC’s stated mission is to “build new tea party groups, host tea party events, and train/educate our grassroots activists.”  As of July 1, the PAC had $896 in cash on hand.

State Rep. Jim Abeler

From every corner of the Republican Party of Minnesota, rebuke came quickly on Tuesday after Preferred One announced it was leaving the MNsure health care exchange.

“Six out of 10 people who've purchased insurance through MNsure will now have to go through the nightmare process of purchasing another plan all over again,” said Republican candidate for governor Jeff Johnson, whose comments were echoed by GOP officials and politicians throughout the state.

But three Republican lawmakers who took part in the legislative process to create MNsure offered more nuanced criticisms, explanations that went beyond the obvious political rhetoric. 

State representative Jim Abeler, the Republican House lead on health care policy and finance, said that PreferredOne, chosen by six out of 10 MNsure applicants, took a gamble that didn’t pan out. “PreferredOne was the most engaged and risk-taking with their products,” he said. “They decided to take a chance with the lowest premiums, but judging from the reports, the enrollment projections weren’t there, and they may be taking a bath.”

State senator Michelle Benson, a member of the legislative oversight committee for MnSure, agrees that Preferred One didn’t get enough customers, but says that the insurer also incurred extra expenses from the inefficiency of the MNsure website. In its statement on withdrawal, Preferred One said MNsure was “taking a significant amount of our resources to support administratively.”

“This fall, they are still planning to use paper forms,” Benson said. “A year and half ago … the insurance companies were pointing out the problems and no one listened.”

Echoed Abeler about MNsure: “They cut themselves out of meaningful feedback. They’re still in workaround mode.”

David Hann, Senate minority leader who has worked in the insurance industry, went back to his initial objection to the creation of MNSure. “There was a structure in Minnesota – that we had for years — MCHA [Minnesota Comprehensive Health Association] under which nobody was denied insurance for pre-existing conditions,” he said.  “That’s not to say there wasn’t an opportunity to make it better and we tried to do so.”

Blue Cross, Health Partners, Medica, and U Care are the remaining insurers on MNsure.  Benson said as larger insurers, they might be able to absorb the administrative costs of participating.  

“The remaining plans want the business and if there’s business to be had, someone will go for it,” Abeler said.  “But the rates may go up.” 

Republican candidate for governor Jeff Johnson has tried to up the ante in making MNsure — and the loss of its most popular insurer — a campaign issue. He called for the state auditor to expand its current investigation into MNsure operations to include whether the Dayton administration pressured PreferredOne to health care rates that were unsustainably low.

Johnson suggested but offered no proof that the Department of Commerce, charged with approving all insurance rates for the state, may have allowed PreferredOne to participate in MNsure without the capacity to sustain the low rates that attracted 60 percent of the MNSure market, or about 30,000 families and individuals.

“The Commerce Departments role is to make sure that the rates are actuarially sound,” Johnson said. “It doesn’t appear that they were.”

When asked whether politics influenced the Commerce Department, he replied, “I think anything could have happened. There can always be political motives in politics.”

The response from the Dayton campaign was terse. “Commissioner Johnson’s accusations that the Governor engaged in illegal activity are unfounded and untrue,” said campaign spokesman Jeremy Drucker. “We will not dignify Commissioner Johnson’s smear attempt with any response.”

Johnson said that Dayton’s failure to respond to concerns about MNSure prompted the call for further involvement of the legislative auditor. He dodged a question of whether the MNSure issue would be pivotal in the campaign’s outcome. But, he said, “Their health insurance and how much they pay for it is a pretty personal thing to most people.”

The Minnesota House DFL Caucus wants to talk about jobs and education. The House Republican caucus wants to talk about lowering taxes and making government more efficient. But at a pair of League of Women Voters forums Monday night in Edina — one each for House districts 49A and 49B  — voters wanted to hear about a lot more: the environment, gun control and big money in politics.

The seats, currently held by DFLers Ron Erhardt (49A) and Paul Rosenthal (49B), are targets for both parties. The GOP is particularly keen on regaining Erhardt’s seat, which covers the heart of Edina. 

Voters in the area are classic moderates. Erhardt is a former Republican, and his GOP challenger, Dario Anselmo, as well as Rosenthal and his Republican challenger, Barb Sutter, all hug the middle road of partisan politics.

And the middle right now is worried about the environment. Of the 15 topics offered for debate, four related to the environment: on climate change, invasive species, green energy initiatives and recycling.

In response, the four candidates expressed support of environmental protection, with the Republicans sounding a cautionary note of wanting to see the results of current alternative energy policies.

Another deviation from the political handbook was on the topic of gun control. The question was, “What can be done to reduce gun violence?”  The candidates’ answers were similar – enact laws that keep guns away from criminals and the mentally unstable.

Most candidates don’t like to talk about abortion. But the voters in suburban Minneapolis apparently do —or at least they want to be clear about where the candidates stand.  Erhardt, Anselmo, and Rosenthal are pro-choice. Sutter supports abortion in the case of the life of the mother.

Even education, usually a hot topic in Edina and Bloomington, prompted a question with an angle — how to close the achievement gap. Education funding, a battle ground in the legislature, was not addressed specifically; and taxes and spending came up once in each of the forums.

“I was surprised how little discussion there was on tax policy, they just touched upon it,” said Edina resident Jeff Werbalowsky, who said the environment and education were his top concerns.   

Several attending the forum noted the similar views expressed by the candidates, which is not surprising in a moderate district. That was certainly the case on the subject of campaign finance reform. When asked if there was too much “big money” in politics, all four of the candidates — all of whom appear to be bracing for a barrage of attacks from independent expenditure groups — agreed that there was. It was a sign that the candidates as well as the voters sometimes want to deviate from standard political practice.   

Gov. Dayton's newest ad, "Darn Good Coach"

Gov. Mark Dayton and his Republican challenger in the governor's race, Jeff Johnson, each raised about a million dollars between July 22 and September 16, the latest fundraising period. 

The candidates released their fundraising totals, which include public subsidies, a few hours before the official filing deadline with the Minnesota Campaign Finance and Disclosure Board. 

Dayton still holds a significant advantage in cash on hand, however, reporting just under $1.7 million vs. Johnson's $866,000, which still puts the GOP candidate in a more competitive position than earlier this summer.   

Dayton just recently began airing a series of TV commercials, "Darn Good Coach" and placed an order for about a million dollars worth of those ads. Dayton’s presence is augmented by another million-dollar campaign launched by Alliance for a Better Minnesota, a DFL political action group.

Johnson’s campaign said today his paid media campaign will tomorrow with a “substantial” media buy statewide. The ad is called “Accountable,” campaign spokesman Jeff Bakken describes it as “positive with an asterisk.”

MinnPost file photo by James NordGov. Mark Dayton

The first governor’s debate of the campaign season takes place Wednesday night in Rochester. 

Truth be told, it could be a rather dull affair.  

Still, Gov. Mark Dayton and his Republican challenger, Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, haven’t had even casual encounters in this campaign, so this first head-to-head has some built-in intrigue (Independence Party candidate Hannah Nicollet will also participate in the debates, so it might be better described as a head-to-head-to-head). 

Furthermore, a recent poll commissioned by the Star Tribune shows that 20 percent of the voters are still undecided in the race, which means that even with a double-digit lead, Dayton has something to lose. With that in mind, here are five things to look for Wednesday night: 

Can Jeff Johnson look like a governor? It’s an opportunity for Johnson to strut his gubernatorial stuff, show a mastery of policy, and force Dayton to acknowledge him as a competitor. “Dayton is running the classic rose garden strategy – campaigning by being governor, focusing on his accomplishments and not acknowledging or recognizing there’s a race,” said Michael Brodkorb, author of politics.mn and a former Republican political operative.

Johnson has to counter that by upending the story of Dayton’s accomplishments, directing his criticism at a spectrum of targets that is likely to include: MNSure, which Johnson will charge has become a bureaucratic nightmare; a labor market in which Johnson will say there are too many people forced to take lower-paying jobs; and a balanced budget that Johnson says comes as the result of ill-conceived tax increases.

How well does Dayton defend his record? Minnesota's unemployment rate is the lowest in the nation. The MNsure glitches have affected, in reality, few people.  And the last time Republicans had bargaining power over the state budget – when the GOP held the legislature in 2011 — government shut down because of an impasse. At least that's what Dayton will say, in so many words. And if he succeeds in making those claims convincing, he holds onto the status quo, which obviously benefits him as an incumbent with a double-digit lead over his Republican opponent. “Dayton can solidify his stature and standing to have these debates be as non-newsworthy as possible,” according to Brodkorb.  “A non-event — that’s a good job for Dayton.”

MinnPost photo by Brian Halliday

Jeff Johnson

Will Johnson make news? He needs to, and will likely try by offering stringent — even strident — criticism of the Dayton administration. He may try to needle Dayton, a governor who has demonstrated the ability to flare up and lash out. “Johnson has to show he’s a fighter, a scrapper, but in a respectful way,” said Brodkorb. 

Will either Johnson or Dayton offer a vision for Minnesota's future? Johnson has to draw the contrasts between him and Dayton while also defining his own vision for the state. As Brodkorb and others agree, he must go beyond the “auditor-in-chief” image of the first Johnson TV ad. 

But the vision thing is Dayton’s biggest challenge as well. He has talked about his accomplishments, but voters want to know what’s next. Thus far, he has said little about what he wants to do in a second term.  A debate is an opportunity to articulate those plans, which, if they are provocative, might create news, but in a positive way for his campaign.

Will Hannah Nicollet seize the moment? Regardless of whether Johnson or Dayton is deemed the debate winner, it’s Independence Party candidate Hannah Nicollet who should score a victory. Barring a totally goofball performance, she has the most to gain. A total unknown, Nicollet’s appearance with Dayton and Johnson will undoubtedly raise her profile as a serious candidate. And, given the perilous state of the Independence Party these days, she needs it to. 

The first debate between Gov. Mark Dayton and Republican challenger governor Jeff Johnson proved the adage that all politics is local.

At the Mayo Civic Center in Rochester, Dayton, Johnson, and Independence Party candidate Hannah Nicollet fielded questions on small-bore questions on issues like support for high-speed rail between Rochester and the Twin Cities (they all gave a tepid yes), the fire-sprinkler requirement in new homes (Dayton is in favor, Johnson and Nicollet not), and Sunday liquor sales (yes from all three).

The narrow focus of most of the questions offered few openings for any feisty interaction among the candidates. Response to a question on MNsure — on the geographic disparities in insurance rates — came the closest to a direct exchange between Johnson and Dayton. “It’s been an unmitigated disaster and it’s hurting thousands of people. We’ve seen rates increase after MNsure, they’re about to spike next year,” Johnson said. As governor, he said, he would ask for a waiver from the Affordable Care Act and “fire every member of the board and staff because they’re incompetent.”

Dayton responded indirectly. “You can cite some statistics that are misleading.  A hundred and forty thousand people were [on] health plans that were not ACA compliant,” he said. “The insurers had to adjust those plans and offer them something better than what they had before.” 

Dayton and Johnson also sparred briefly on jobs related to the expansion of mining in northern Minnesota, under review by the state and federal environmental agencies. “We’re kind of slow walking that process,” Johnson said.  “I don’t think Polymet [mining company] will open if the governor is re-elected.”

“To jump at this point of the environmental review process … is going to pander to northern Minnesota,” Dayton countered.

In the hour-long debate, the candidates also didn't delve too deeply on transportation and taxes and spending.  All three agreed that transportation funded needed to be a priority. 

On taxes, Dayton defended his tax increases but said he sees no need to for another increase.  Johnson promised a reform of the state’s tax system, and Nicollet said she’d repeal the corporate income tax.

Newcomer Nicollet, a former software developer, has not been invited to join the next four debates.  Dayton and Johnson face off again Wednesday in Moorhead. 

Video of the first 2014 gubernatorial debate, held in Rochester on Wednesday night, courtesy of the UpTake.

Both the Republican Party of Minnesota and the Minnesota DFL have closed out their third quarter of state and federal fundraising with healthy cash balances.   

The GOP reports that it raised $3.8 million so far this year, its strongest fundraising period since 2008.  As of September 30, the party had $619,000 cash on hand.

The DFL is in even better shape. With contributions of more than $6 million this year, the party reported having more than $1.1 million in cash on hand.

The question now, with the election four weeks away, is how they spend it.  The answer is that both parties will focus on what they do best – getting the base of the party to show up to vote.

Get-out-the vote mail, phone calls, and encouraging use of absentee ballots are crucial for both parties for different reasons. Republican candidate for governor Jeff Johnson and U.S. Senate candidate Mike McFadden are trailing Gov. Mark Dayton and U.S. Senator Al Franken, and the Republican party needs every vote from every member of the faithful to keep the top of the ticket within striking distance of their opponents. 

Furthermore, Republicans need only a net gain of seven seats to regain control of the Minnesota House.  According to a MinnPost analysis, twenty seats are in play, so a strong Republican turnout improves the odds that the GOP can pick up enough seats to win the House majority. 

Because of the toss-up races in the Legislature, though, the DFL won’t take turnout for granted, and will spend money the same mail, phone call, and absentee ballot mechanisms. While statewide office incumbents appear to be holding comfortable leads, non-presidential-year elections are tricky for the party in power. Conventional wisdom holds that the opposition voters are more motivated, though it's also the case that the Democrats have long been far more sophisticated when it comes to both tactics and tools employed in getting out the vote. 

Adding to the need for a strong DFL voter-turnout effort is the concern over President Obama’s flagging approval ratings. The most loyal of the Democratic voters will go to the polls, but the DFL must energize a broader base, and national polls have suggested may be just enough disenchanted with Obama that Democratic voters stay home on November 4.

Spending on television and radio advertising is a luxury only the DFL can afford. The party has already started what it’s said will be a million dollar broadcast campaign on behalf of Dayton.

The Republican party, while it may get additional money to finance broadcast ads, is unlikely to have a substantial presence on the air. The party, under the new chairmanship of Keith Downey, has made what he calls “the ground game” its priority.

That means communicating with the base of the party,  a traditional route that both the DFL and the GOP will employ in the final weeks of the 2014 campaign.

Jeff Johnson has some catching up to do. 

A poll just released by KSTP-TV shows that Gov. Mark Dayton has widened his lead over his Republican challenger, 51 percent to 39 percent, a position corroborated in other recent polls.

Tonight’s debate in Moorhead, the second in a series of five, will give Johnson the opportunity to take a more aggressive tone in describing both his own vision and the flaws he sees in the Dayton administration.   

There's only one problem with that strategy: The Forum News Service and WDAY-TV, the sponsors that initially limited the debate to Johnson and Dayton, have decided to include Independence party candidate Hannah Nicollet, based on a poll taken this summer that showed her with 11 percent support.

At a minimum, Nicollet’s presence in the 90-minute debate will siphon time from the other two candidates. That hurts Johnson in particular, since the debates are precious minutes that he must pack with persuasion.  

Furthermore, Nicollet, who appeared in the candidates’ first debate last week in Rochester, demonstrated only the broadest grasp of public policy. Her answers often meandered, bringing the debate off-topic. A similar performance could prove to be a distraction for Johnson, who will want to stay laser-focused on his campaign talking points. 

As in the first debate, Johnson will do his best to challenge Dayton. “This is where the governor and I differ,” was his polite way of disagreeing. Yet the man who even DFL party chair Ken Martin describes as affable seems incapable of communicating righteous indignation. With the election less than four weeks away, though, Johnson will try to step up the rhetoric.

Dayton certainly will talk about the accomplishments of his administrations and defend the policies he helped enact. He did so in the first debate. 

And as the incumbent, he’s using the office to expand that list: At a news conference Tuesday, Dayton announced that the administration will spend $70 million dollars on road and bridge improvement across the state. In a non-election year, this announcement might have been left to the Department of Transportation.

Dayton has provided few details on his plans for a second term, even in one-on-one interviews. But given the longer format of this debate, it’s likely there will a few questions that move him in that direction.

The debate in Moorhead will be streamed live on the WDAY and Forum News Service websites. 

Broadcast live streaming video on Ustream

In the second debate of the 2014 governor’s race, Mark Dayton made news with his very first question, suggesting for the first time that he would seek an increase in the gasoline sales tax to fund transportation.

“I would make a specific proposal, including a sales tax on gasoline that will raise close to the $6.5 billion that we’re short in transportation funding over the next ten years,” Dayton said Wednesday night in Moorhead.  

Neither GOP candidate Jeff Johnson nor Independence Party candidate Hannah Nicollet supported that idea, and it gave Johnson the chance to try out a testier tone that he used often in the 90-minute debate.  

“We had the biggest tax increase in state history and we’re saying we don’t have enough money to fill potholes,” Johnson said.  “That’s nuts. To suggest that we gotta raise taxes again is wrong.”

Dayton spent much of the debate touting his administration’s record on transportation funding, as well as education, job creation and support for greater Minnesota.  He had to.  In responses to several questions, he was tag-teamed by Johnson and Nicollet, as in this exchange on how to keep college graduates in Minnesota:

Nicollet: “What we have in Minnesota is an opportunity problem. We have 49 percent of our individuals who are underemployed, making less than they expected and over-qualified for the positions that they have.” 

Dayton: “We have economic growth occurring all over the state. I got to respond to these fictions about half the people in Minnesota are underemployed.  It’s nonsense.”

Johnson: “The number you say is false comes from your administration. The number is accurate.  To say it’s no big deal, I think it’s out of touch.”

Johnson used another theme — responsibility, or lack thereof — in responding to a question on the financing of the new Vikings stadium. He called it “a debacle” and said Dayton didn’t fully know what was in the bill he signed. “Minnesotans deserve a governor who owns his decisions and is engaged,” he said.

Dayton fired back. “Tell the 7,500 people who are working on this project … that this project is a debacle,” he said.    

The debate, sponsored by the Forum News Service, had a focus on regional issues like flood control (all three agreed the state needed to work on a solution with North Dakota) and a proposed oil pipeline. Dayton said environmental concerns need to be a priority for the project; Johnson and Nicollet say they support it.

But while the candidates — especially Dayton and Johnson — used the time to highlight their differences and critique opposing positions and policies, the overall tone once again remained cordial. The next debate is October 14 in Duluth.

Broadcast live streaming video on Ustream

“What’s your name?”

“What are you working on?”

“That’s well done.” 

The politicians crouched on the floor, asking questions of the first- and third-graders and making the most of the photogenic surroundings at Global Academy charter school in Columbia Heights. 

Republican candidate for governor Jeff Johnson, accompanied by Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, moved the education achievement gap to the front burner of his campaign today with an appearance at a school where students score higher than the state average on achievement tests.

“Minnesota has one of the worst, if not the worst, achievement gaps … in the country,” Johnson said after he, Christie, and Republican candidate for U.S. Senate Mike McFadden toured three classrooms. “It’s embarrassing, it’s immoral. I think it’s unconscionable that we seem to be willing to almost give up on some of the kids in our state.”

The DFL responded to the event even before it was held. “As governor, Christie slashed a billion dollars in direct state aid to schools, gutting key investments in New Jersey’s future,” the DFL said in a statement. “As a legislator, Johnson voted for deep cuts in education funding.”

Johnson has disputed the charge of votes to cut education funding and today stressed that parents should have more control of education funding.

“For as much as possible we should let the money follow the child,” Johnson said.  “It gives parents more control … more choices, it gives them more options.” 

Christie, a likely candidate for president and chair of the Republican Governors Association, was asked how the RGA would demonstrate its support for Johnson.   

“I’m here because I think Jeff can win this race,” Christie said. “That should be an important sign of the RGA’s perspective of our commitment here. I’m going to 18 different states in the month of October. I’m not going to any place where I think our candidate can’t win.”  

“We’ve been through this before,” Gov. Mark Dayton said early on in this morning’s debate with Republican challenger Jeff Johnson, sponsored by the Duluth Chamber of Commerce and the Duluth News Tribune.    

True, the subject matter of this third debate – taxes, transportation, education, business climate — was similar to the first two. But Dayton and Johnson, while not taking out the knives, did have sharper responses on the issues and sharper attacks on each another.  

A sample exchange came in response to a question on copper-nickel mining in northeastern Minnesota.

“The governor is beholden to some pretty extreme environmental groups,” Johnson said. He reiterated his support for mining expansion and also his claim that the Dayton is using an extended environmental review to stop the project. In other responses, Johnson would revisit the theme of Dayton being in the thrall of special interests.

Dayton, who overall used his time to articulate the accomplishments of his administration, deflected the mining issue with a theme central to his criticisms of Johnson. 

“Irresponsible … you’re just doing it for political advantage,” he said. “I’ve been working on behalf of northeastern Minnesota for 37 years and I’ve seen the hucksters go up there and promise chopstick factories … and all those other things because they are dangling out the prospects of jobs. Well we’re going to do this one responsibly.”

Dayton also tried to characterize Johnson as the anti-cheerleader when Johnson criticized the state’s job growth.  “To denigrate this state and to denigrate what the people of Minnesota have accomplished is just wrong,” Dayton said.

When Dayton defended MNsure, Johnson didn’t mince words in his response. “It has been an unmitigated disaster from day one. And not just because it wasted a fantastic amount of money on a crappy website,” Johnson said.

On Dayton’s boasting of increasing education funding,Johnsonsuggested it was payback to the teachers union.  “I’m not an anti-union guy, but I will not let any special interest dictate policy to me,” he said.

The two candidates shared no common ground on any issue and thrust and parried in every response. Whether it was practice or the morning hour or the fact that it was only a two-man debate (Independence party candidate Hannah Nicollet was not invited to participate), Dayton and Johnson offered a more precise definition of their positions than in prior debates and statements.

They go back to the podiums in five days with a debate at Hamline University in St. Paul.

The debate between Gov. Mark Dayton and Jeff Johnson at Hamline University on Sunday, courtesy of the UpTake.

In the penultimate governor’s debate of 2014, we learned that Gov. Mark Dayton smoked marijuana, and that his Republican challenger Jeff Johnson has not. We learned that Dayton and Johnson each spanked one of their children; that each owns at least one gun; and that both have a sweet tooth.

Those revelations came at the end of the debate at Hamline University in St. Paul on Sunday morning, preceded by the standard questions on budget, spending, taxes, and health care.  Save Johnson's refusal to define what consititutes the middle class, candidates broke no new ground in their responses.  In fact, their answers, while sincere, varied little in verbiage and tone from earlier debates.

So what kind of questions could have jolted the candidates from the security of talking points, while still being relevant to the issue of how they would govern? What, after four debates, are the questions we still haven't heard the candidates address?  

There are many, of course, but here are four areas that I think deserve more exploration:

The economy

In Sunday’s debate, Dayton opened with the accomplishments of his administration, something he's talked about frequently.  “When I became governor in January of 2011, Minnesota was not in good shape,” he said Sunday. “[Now] unemployment is down to 4.1 percent, we have a budget surpluses rather than deficits.”

But it would be nice to have Dayton address how much control he thinks one governor can really exert over the economics of recession and recovery. If Minnesota rebounded better than other states, how much can be attributed to legislative decisions as opposed to the state’s diverse economic base? 

Job growth

Johnson has tried to punch holes in Dayton’s claim of job growth by using a state report showing that many workers are considered underemployed, that is, overqualified and underpaid. He did so again on Sunday. “It has to do with the fact that we have a tax structure in Minnesota that is not competitive, especially when it comes to small businesses, and we have a regulatory burden,” Johnson said.  “Because of that, the good jobs are being created in other states.”

But a recent report in Forbes.com estimates that 22 million American workers are now considered under-employed.  It would be helpful to hear Johnson explain why he believes Minnesota's tax structure in particular is creating this problem when it seems to be happening all over the country?

Taxes

Dayton was asked whether there was a circumstance under which he’d raise general fund taxes. He said no, and then segued into his efforts to increase property tax relief.  “Property tax relief has been very successful the last few years, slowing the drastic increase in property taxes over the previous decade,” he said.  “Property taxes had increased by 86 percent in the decade before I took office and now they are relatively stable.”  

But the decade before Dayton took office, from 2000 through 2010, saw one of the biggest increases in real estate values in history. Property taxes followed suit. Then came the recession and property values tanked. Although state aid and credits have blunted some increases, it would be good to hear him more clearly explain why he isn't just taking credit for the lower taxes that resulted from declining values. 

Social issues

Dayton has tried to position Johnson as dodgy on some of the positions he’s taken. He asked Johnson why he asked for the endorsement of the Tea Party and then denied it later. Johnson replied he was looking for the support of activists who would be part of the party endorsement process.  “One of the reasons I was endorsed, and one of the reasons I won the primary is because I have reached out to every faction of our party,” Johnson said Sunday.  “We still have a lot of moderate Republicans around Minnesota.” 

Given that response, how would Johnson resist the temptation to appease the most conservative faction of the Republican Party and avoid divisive social issues? 

The next and final debate is Halloween night on TPT public television.  A tricky question or two might be a treat for viewers.

Will Minnesota’s business groups supporting Republican Jeff Johnson over Mark Dayton deliver an October surprise in the governor’s race?

Only if you’re surprised that those who spent heavily in 2010 to support then-gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer are now doling out a lot less money to support a far less controversial, more traditional pro-business candidate.

Conspicuously absent from the 2014 race, for example, is MNForward, a political action group primarily funded by Minnesota’s large businesses. In 2010, the group spent almost $2 million to support Emmer’s candidacy. Yet as of mid-September, MNForward had spent nothing on the Johnson-Dayton race — and is not expected to.

Credit the business groups' reticence to the power of incumbency — and to Dayton's somewhat surprisingly healthy relationship with local business leaders. Indeed, many business groups and their individual members have spent considerable time in Dayton’s office over the last four years. 

They’ve lobbied him on dozens of business concerns, and persuaded him to drop his business-to-business tax proposal and to support streamlining the state’s regulatory process. More directly, individual businesses worked with the governor’s office on the authorization of a new Vikings stadium and the state’s successful bid for the Super Bowl.    

As a result, compared to most of the special interest groups that have traditionally opposed Dayton and the DFL, the business community has a downright cordial relationship with the governor and his administration. Of course, it doesn't hurt that Dayton’s incumbency has given him clear front-runner status.

All of which is not to say there’s no independent, pro-Johnson paid support of substance. The Minnesota Action Network, the PAC headed by former Minnesota U.S. Senator Norm Coleman, spent roughly $400,000 on ads attacking Dayton’s record on education reform.

And starting in early September, the Freedom Club has spent almost a million dollars on an ad criticizing Dayton and the DFL about the new state Senate Office Building.

There's also the Pro Jobs Majority, the PAC arm of the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce that was sitting on almost $700,000 as of mid-September. It’s expected that some of that money will find its way into pro-Johnson, anti-Dayton advertising.

Johnson for Governor

Those who spent heavily in 2010 to support then-gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer are now doling out a lot less money to support Jeff Johnson.

The 2014 governor’s race has not produced a torrent of spending on either side. Even amid that context, though, business groups are being substantially outspent. Alliance for a Better Minnesota, the DFL powerhouse PAC, has already spent almost two million dollars in the governor’s race, and the Minnesota DFL Party has spent about one million dollars.  

While campaign spending on both sides will no doubt increase over the next 10 days, it’s unlikely that donors on either side will come forward with six-figure contributions that could change the campaign spending patterns already in place.

After “losing,” the most dreaded word in any Minnesota political operative's vocabulary is probably “recount.”

Yet given the the state's recent history of close elections, the Republican and DFL parties are, not surprisingly, preparing for the possibility. “We always prepare for the worst case scenario,” said DFL party chair Ken Martin. 

The state saw that scenario in 2008, of course, when it took eighth months to validate Al Franken’s 312-vote victory in the U.S. Senate race with Norm Coleman. It saw it again in 2010, when Mark Dayton’s nine thousand-vote lead over Republican candidate for governor Tom Emmer forced a recount and prompted the infamous “we’re not going to get rolled again,” outburst from then-GOP chair Tony Sutton. 

Neither party is expecting a landslide next Tuesday, and both have identified (but will not name) Washington D.C. law firms that will work with local attorneys in the case of a recount possibility.

According to a senior Republican party official, Republicans are focusing on the races you'd expect them to focus on: the Franken-Mike McFadden U.S. Senate race, the Dayton-Jeff Johnson governor’s race, the congressional races in the Seventh and Eighth Districts, and races that will determine the leadership of the House in the Minnesota Legislature.

“The National Republican Congressional Committee, National Republican Senatorial Committee, a Washington, D.C., law firm will all be consulted and play a role and decide,” the official said.  “There’s so much at stake with the Senate up for grabs that all of the Washington groups are watching this very closely." 

Martin declined to go into which races the DFL expects to be close.

The scrutiny of the process has already started. Republicans say it’s now standard operating procedure to engage poll watchers on the lookout for voting irregularities and to have attorneys at the ready.

The DFL is on the same page, with an “election protection program” they run each election cycle that includes “lawyers cataloging any anomalies leading up to and on Election Day which may impact the outcome,” Martin said.

The state requires an automatic, publicly financed recount in races that are decided by less than one-quarter of one percentage point of the vote. But the parties pay for the lawyers that monitor recount activities. And it’s not cheap. In 2010, Dayton established a special fund to pay the $750,00 in legal fees from the gubernatorial election recount. 

The Republicans footed the bill for Emmer’s legal expenses, also in the $700,000 range, though former GOP chair Sutton tried to keep the debt off the party’s books by establishing a separate account. The state campaign finance board ruled that the fees had to be considered party obligation, and the fees helped put the GOP nearly two million dollars in the hole, a debt that the party is still paying off today.