The well-respected St. Cloud State University annual political poll has delivered declining job approval numbers for Democrats Sen. Al Franken and Gov. Mark Dayton, but according to the director of the poll, Republicans don’t appear to be benefiting.

The poll interviewed 626 respondents on landlines and cell phones between Oct. 20 and 27. They were asked, “How would you rate the overall performance of Barack Obama, Mark Dayton, Amy Klobuchar and Al Franken. Excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?”

The results:

Dayton and Obama’s job approvals dropped from 53 percent and 47 percent, respectively, compared with the same poll taken in 2012.

On the relatively strong negatives for Franken and Dayton, Stephen Frank, political science professor at SCSU and director of the poll, said: “It’s not unexpected for public officials to pass out of a honeymoon and their ratings consistently go down. We’re seeing a lot of governors, Democrats and Republicans in the forties on job approval.”

In addition to job approval, the SCSU poll asked respondents to rank political figures and parties on a “feeling thermometer.” A register between 50 and 100 indicates favorable feelings, below 50 indicates unfavorable.

Respondents were "warm" to Klobuchar and Franken. Here are their scores for the four Democrats and for Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann:

• Klobuchar: 66
• Franken: 51
• Dayton: 49
• Obama: 46
• Bachmann: 31.

Asked to rank their feelings for the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, the Tea Party and the Libertarian Party, none received a “warm” score:

• Democratic Party: 47
• Republican Party: 40
• Libertarian Party: 37
• Tea Party: 31.

According to Frank, this gauge indicates that Republicans are not picking up disaffected Democrats. 

Later this week, SCSU will release poll results on whether Minnesota is headed in the right or wrong direction, the most important problem facing the state, which party can best handle these problems, and which party should control state House of Representatives in 2014.

“When you see these two [sets of poll results] in context, I believe Republicans will take no particular glee in thinking, ‘We are going sweep elections in 2014,’ ” Frank said.

MinnPost photo by Brian HallidayMimi Anderson

Another divisive social issue will be on the agenda for the 2014 session of the Minnesota Legislature — the “safe and supportive schools act,” otherwise known as the bullying bill.

The Minnesota Child Protection League, an ardent opponent of the bill, is lobbying in Republican and conservative Democratic circles to defeat House File 826, which passed this year in the House but stalled in the state Senate.

Republican legislators objected that the bill, which offers a detailed definition of bullying and establishes 19 protected classes of children, was overreaching, expensive and burdensome to school districts.

The Child Protection League agrees with those objections but has others, too.

At a Tuesday meeting of the Republican Seniors of Minnesota in Bloomington, Mimi Anderson, the league’s program director, described the bill as a “disgusting and despicable piece of legislation.”

The Republican senior group appeared to be unified in its opposition to the bill but had a mixed response to Anderson’s message. Some nodded in agreement, but others questioned whether using an anti-gay message was ethically or politically responsible.

Anderson continued: “We just legalized a new definition of marriage and now they have to normalize it. How are they going to normalize it when those of us who have religion …. and are teaching our kids to follow a natural, normal order of things, how are they going to normalize it?

“They are going to have to normalize it through the school system,” she told the group. “That same-sex marriage bill was just the precursor for what they really want. These students will be using a curriculum that is sexually explicit, morally offensive and physically unsafe.

“This is a bureaucratic takeover of indoctrination of our kids through sex education, remedial education and forms of discipline, tearing down the moral fabric of what we’re raising our children to be and become. This is the animal that they couldn’t wait to get out of the cage.”

But not everyone was buying her message.

“Terrible politics” was the opinion of Alan Shilepsky, a 2006 Republican candidate for Congress in the 5th District. Shilepsky, as a board member for the Log Cabin Republicans, had lobbied Republicans to not support the constitutional amendment that would have banned same-sex marriage.

After listening to Anderson’s remarks, Shilepsky said he, too, believes the bill is a bureaucratic nightmare but that preaching the fears of a gay agenda to defeat it would create a Republican backlash.

“The marriage amendment was the biggest organizing effort to help the Democrats in 10 years. It mobilized them to do many things,” he said. “We’ve built a monster because of our own foolishness.”

Anderson assured the group that the approach of the Child Protection League has bipartisan acceptance. “Whether I’m talking to Democrats or Republicans, parents are outraged,” she said.

She encouraged people to sign up for a Dec. 14 League training session to become part of a “massive movement to stop this bill.”

JonathunderArne Carlson

As leaders from both parties alternately take credit for the state’s new budget surplus, they could heed some observations from a Minnesota governor who presided over a brief era that produced both budget surpluses and balanced budgets without borrowing or new taxes.

Arne Carlson, who served as governor for eight years beginning in 1991, gives minimal credit for the predicted billion-dollar surplus to any political decisions.

“In this particular case, what you’re seeing here is a normal recovery,” he said in an interview. (Disclosure: During part of his term, I served as his deputy chief of staff.)

In Minnesota, in particular, he said, recovery has been enhanced by the strength of the state’s core industries.

“We are leaders in health care, medical devices, agriculture, and these are critical resources in a global economy,” he said. “Minnesota is very blessed.”

Carlson gives a nod of approval to Gov. Mark Dayton for balancing the 2013-2014 budget without gimmicks.

“The truth is, the budgets over the Governor Pawlenty years were never in balance, and we lost our credit rating,” he said.

But Dayton’s cure was too long on tax increases and too short on budget efficiencies, he said.

“It’s fair to say the tax increase did not dent revenue, but it did not bring a bag load of money either,” he said. “What was disappointing was lack of focus on cost savings.”

And not just budget cuts, he said. Carlson believes state budget architects should start a bold, new experiment in designing how government functions.

“The model we have now has been around for 50, 60 years,” he said.  

Carlson suggests that the Dayton administration and Legislature assemble a talent pool with participants from business and higher education to design a budget that stimulates state employment through innovation.

“Not only in terms of the tax system but also in terms of spending,” he said. “Maine went toward a flat tax that really helped stabilize them. That’s one area we could explore.”

He offered more general advice on spending. Government, Carlson said, should analyze its budget, determine what investments are most likely to attract new and younger workers and eliminate state spending that is no longer useful.

“We got locked in the past, but now you have to learn to rethink,” Carlson said. “It’s a good time for Minnesota to start planning its future.”

The Republican Party of Minnesota is moving out of the power zone that surrounds the state Capitol in St. Paul and heading into a Minneapolis neighborhood where residents are likely to have more allegiance to the DFL.   

On Jan. 31, the GOP headquarters moves from 525 Park St. to 2200 E. Franklin Ave. in the Seward neighborhood of Minneapolis. Nearby are the University of Minnesota and Augsburg College and the Christo Rey and Minnesota Transitions charter high schools.

Party Chair Keith Downey says the move across town and demographic sectors was a strategic decision as well a financial one.

“We are trying to send a signal that’s real and substantive,” Downey said in an interview.  “Frankly our ideas and solutions are right for new American immigrants, people struggling with employment, and students.”

From a practical standpoint, he said, the space is more technologically advanced, a third less in cost and well-located in terms of highway access.

Downey said the headquarters is likely to host an open house after he and the staff gets settled but that he does not intend to wait to get involved in the community.

“Just the fact that you are in the neighborhood, there are opportunities to serve the neighborhood,” he said.

Sen. Karin Housley

“The women’s groups and activists that I have spoken with — and even some of the female lobbyists, even DFL lobbyists — have all pledged their support,” says first-term Republican Sen. Karin Housley, who is considering a run for governor.

In an interview, Housley confirmed that she is leaning heavily toward a run and likely will make a decision early next year.

It’s difficult to assess the degree of support Housley would have among GOP activists who determine the party’s endorsement, especially since she would be one of a field of seven candidates.

But her gender could be a game changer.

“Being a woman is an asset,” she said, indicating she would exploit that distinction. “Not to diminish the male candidates, but you do bring a whole new perspective. Not the same old, same old.”

Housley, who lives in St. Mary’s Point, represents a district that encompasses Stillwater and Forest Lake.

She does expect some criticism about running for governor as a relative political newcomer.

“I’m just a freshman legislator. [But] there have been other candidates for governor who aren’t even as qualified as I am,” she said, noting that she owns a realty business and has written a book on finance, “Chicks Laying Nest Eggs.”

Housley has experience jumping into the deep end of the political pool. After incumbent state Sen. Ray Vandeveer suddenly quit the race in 2012, Housley entered the GOP primary on the last day of candidate filings and went on to win.

She won’t rule out running in a gubernatorial primary but said she would seriously seek the GOP endorsement. 

She says that after conservative women’s groups, donors and business groups recruited her, she posed the possibility to her family — professional hockey coach and former NHL star Phil Housley and their four children. “They were all on board and supportive,” she said.

Housley said she did a search of Minnesota governors and their backgrounds, which convinced her that her credentials are sufficient to run a credible race in a short period of time.

“The month of January will be enough time to get everything in order and jump in,” she said.

Housley also confirmed another political tidbit: If she decides to join the governor’s race, she would be the first woman to run for Minnesota governor as a Republican.

Rep. Ron Erhardt

Minnesota House Republicans make no secret that they are going full-bore to regain seats lost to the DFL in 2012, particularly in swing suburban districts.

House District 49A, in Edina and west Bloomington, occupies a pivotal position in that battle with two candidates separated by a fine line of political differences. 

Republican Polly Peterson Bowles has announced that next year she’s prepared to take on incumbent DFL Rep. Ron Erhardt, a former Republican who once worked with Peterson Bowles on campaigns in the district. 

The political leaning of the district tips toward the center-right. The politics of Peterson Bowles and Erhardt lie to the right and left of that, respectively.

“I’ve always been with them on the social issues,” Erhardt said of his comfort level within the DFL caucus.

The fiscal issues? Not so much.

Erhardt voted against the tax bill with it new upper-income tax bracket and new business taxes.  ”I don’t remember ever talking about them,” he said of the business taxes, “and they were dumb-ass things anyway, so I didn’t vote for them.”

Erhardt’s bluntness — and the name recognition he earned serving the district for nine terms — guided him to a win in 2012 against Republican Bill Glahn, with 56 percent of the vote.

Peterson Bowles goes toe to toe with Erhardt on district pedigree. She is the daughter of the late C. Donald Peterson, who also represented the district and went on to serve for almost 20 years on the Minnesota Supreme Court. 

Peterson Bowles, a former Miss Minnesota whose sister is a former Miss USA, was appointed to the Metropolitan Council by Gov. Arne Carlson. She tried for and lost the 2012 GOP endorsement for the House seat.

“I’ve always had an interest in government and come from a family where public service was a model,” she said.

“What really motivated me is the frustration of gridlock and the tenor of the public discussion. My father always talked about the lively debate on the floor of the House and [how] people would go out to coffee afterward.  People could disagree, but it did not become personal.”

Erhardt ran his 2012 campaign on a platform of being able to work across the aisle.

Polly Peterson Bowles

Peterson Bowles said she describes herself as a “pragmatic conservative,” saying: “The word compromise from a party standpoint is not a popular word, but there is an art to the judicious use of negotiating a compromise.”

She has nuanced views on the social issues that drove Erhardt to the DFL.

 She believes, for example, that the state’s role in marriage should be limited to determining the contractual requirements of a committed union.

“Regardless of whether the union is a man and woman, or two men or two women, the state should be there to define and enforce the benefits,” she said. “Leave out the word marriage.”

Abortion, she said, is the “federal law of the land. I don’t support abortion as a birth control method or a way of ducking responsibility.”

When Peterson Bowles, now 54, sought the 2012 GOP endorsement, she promised to abide by the party’s decision. This time, she said, “I will hold the idea of a primary in reserve.”

Erhardt, 84, says he’s preparing for a tough campaign against whoever ends up the Republican candidate. He’s already raised $15,000 for a race that could run well into six figures.

While Peterson Bowles pieces together her campaign, Erhardt says he already has his aggressive political plan in place. “Just raise money and go out and kill ’em,” he said.

The second half of a St. Cloud State University political survey delivers some encouraging news for Minnesota Democrats.

The annual survey found a dramatic increase in those identifying with the DFL Party.

“The 16-point advantage for Democrats is the largest the survey has observed,” said Steve Frank, the survey director and political science professor at SCSU, in releasing the data. “In the past few years, it has been about 7 to 11 points.”

The survey interview of 629 adults found this breakdown on party identification:

Democratic — 45%
Republican — 29%
Libertarian — 4%
Independence — 3%

That leaves 19 percent of respondents expressing no party identification.

The Democratic advantage was reflected in survey results that found 46 percent favoring DFL control of the House, and 45 percent believing the state is headed in the right direction.

It should be noted the survey was taken before the peak of negative news coverage of the rollout of the Affordable Care Act and MnSure.

The interviews, conducted Oct. 20 to 27, included both cell phones and land lines.

Results from the first half of the survey, released earlier this month, showed declining approval numbers for Democratic office holders but no real political gain for Republicans.

Here’s a look at the newly released survey results:

On which party should control the Minnesota House:

Democrats — 46%
Republicans — 31%
Other — 10%

The survey notes that the 15-point advantage for Democrats is “the biggest difference we have observed…  When considered with our findings of party affiliation and the feeling thermometer this is not a good place for the Republican Party to be.”

(In findings released earlier, 60 percent of the respondents, in ranking their “feelings” for political parties, gave a cool indicator to the Republican Party.) 

On right direction/wrong track for the state:

Right direction — 45%
Wrong track — 38%

The survey notes: “For the first time in over three-plus years, more Minnesota adults think the state is headed in the right direction compared to those who think the state is on the wrong track. We are much more optimistic than Americans nationwide (roughly 30 percent right direction for the country — 60 percent or more say wrong track).”

Top problems facing the state:

Taxes — 13%
Economy —12%
Health care — 10%
Unemployment — 10%
Education — 10%
Budget — 8%
Other — 8%

On which political party can best handle state’s problems:

Democratic Party — 36%
Republican Party — 25%.

MinnPost file photo by James NordGov. Mark Dayton

Supporters of the Dayton for Governor campaign are believed to be polling on an issue critical to his re-election chances. No, it’s not the departure of MnSure Executive Director April Todd Malmov.

The polling focuses on the question of copper-nickel mining in northern Minnesota, according to two sources who have knowledge of the campaign and who are familiar with the efforts of PolyMet and Twin Metals to obtain state permits for their mining operations.

Dayton campaign director Katie Tinucci said the campaign itself currently is doing no polling and had conducted its last poll in September.

Jason George is political director for Operating Engineers Local 49, which represents heavy equipment operators, many of whom live the 8th Congressional District of northern Minnesota. He said his members are well aware of the political sensitivity of the mining debate, which places environmentalists and labor — both important to Dayton’s re-election chances — on opposing sides. 

“This is a hugely important issue to us,” George said. “Our interest is the jobs aspect and the potential jobs that can be created if we can get this industry going.”

George and his colleagues are not afraid to get in the face of politicians whom they believe have made up their minds prematurely while the environmental review process is still under way.

In particular, Local 49 and other labor unions are rankled by the opposition of State Auditor Rebecca Otto.  During a recent meeting of the state executive council — a group composed of the governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, auditor and attorney general —only Otto voted against the expansion of mineral leases.  

That prompted George to ask for a meeting with Otto that he describes as “not acrimonious [but] we just disagree very strongly with her position.”

According to George, Dayton is handling the issue properly. “I think he believes in the process,” he said. “He trusts the DNR and the commissioner to follow the process and get it right.

“And if he’s polling, he’s going to find out that there’s overwhelming support for mining and overwhelming support, especially, where the mining takes place.”

During the 2014 legislative session, George said, labor is planning to lobby lawmakers as aggressively as environmental coalitions.

“We will be giving our members every tool so they can let their political leaders know how they feel,” he said “I hope the politicians listen. We are definitely going to weigh in.”

Dec. 31 was a day for celebrations, New Year’s resolutions – and plenty of pleas for political contributions from candidates hoping to improve their bottom line for end-of- year campaign finance reports.  

For example, Tom Perron, senior adviser to Gov. Mark Dayton’s re-election campaign, sent an email message marked “urgent.”

“I’ve been worried for the last few days about this urgent end-of-year filing deadline we’re facing. Trust me: It’s the most important of the campaign so far,” Perron wrote. The Dayton campaign, which had set a quarterly goal of $30,000, was pleading with donors to contribute at least $2,837 before the start of the new year.

A similar request came from Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Honour. “Before you begin your New Year's celebrations tonight, please help us through tonight's fundraising deadline,” he wrote.

Two other GOP candidates for governor also sent New Year’s Eve missives.

“Can you help us meet our 2013 goal?” asked Jeff Johnson in his email. Rep. Kurt Zellers, meanwhile, made his pitch with a holiday-themed request for a donation of $14  and a message: “I'll keep this brief — I know it's a big night. It is for us, too — tonight is an important fundraising deadline for our campaign, and we really need you to show your support with a contribution before the ball drops at midnight.”

The requests all ask for small donations — as little as $5 — not unusual in bulk email requests. 

This year, candidates for governor can receive individual donations as large as $4,000. Donations to candidates for attorney general can be as large as $2,500, with donors to candidates for secretary of state and auditor limited to $2,000.

However, donations of these sizes usually come from personalized requests or at host-sponsored fundraisers, rather than in emails.

Candidates are required to file their year-end fundraising reports with the state Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board by Jan. 31.

Sen. Dave Thompson

Candidates for Minnesota governor are still working to determine their final 2013 fundraising tallies, but one GOP challenger is so pleased with his results that he’s eager to share the news.

State Sen. Dave Thompson of Lakeville, one of six Republican candidates for governor, said his campaign raised more than $120,000 last year — enough, he said, to show “this is a viable campaign.”

Thompson said he could not specify how much cash the campaign has on hand “because there are still checks coming in and bills to be paid. But we have enough to be competitive as we move into the caucuses [Feb. 4] and, of course, the endorsement process.”

Year-end campaign finance reports are due Jan. 31.

Equally satisfied is the re-election campaign of Gov. Mark Dayton. In an email, Dayton told backers, “Because of supporters like you, we met our fundraising goal for 2013!”

Campaign director Katherine Tinucci said the campaign is still finalizing its report but indicated the campaign war chest now is in the seven figures. “It was a significant goal, and we surpassed it,” she said.

As of Sept. 30, the Dayton campaign had raised $628,457. Tinucci said 2013’s total fundraising will have come from outside donors — “no contributions, no loans from the candidate.”

As the incumbent, Dayton is expected to be well-funded for his re-election bid.

Among his GOP challengers, early strong fundraising totals are important — not just in enabling ongoing campaign activities but also as an indication of a serious campaign that has solid support.

Strong fundraising results could help a Republican candidate emerge from the pack and influence the party activists who will endorse a candidate at their state convention in May.

The campaigns for four of the other five GOP candidates — businessman Scott Honour, Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, former House Minority eader Marty Seifert and Rep. Kurt Zellers — have not yet released fundraising estimates.

However, one candidate — Rob Farnsworth, the Hibbing high school teacher who had a reasonably strong showing in a Republican straw poll in October — told MinnPost that his campaign had raised relatively little.

“I can tell you that our fundraising numbers are going to come in much lower than the other candidates,” he said. “We expect to come in below $10,000.”

Seifert, who entered the race in late November, also downplayed the expectations.

“My challenge, compared to all other candidates — they had six full months … to line up commitments from donors,” he said. “I have never taken contributions from lobbyists, and I had less than 40 days to raise money, while competing against Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s Eve.”

Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson is the latest Republican candidate for governor to release 2013 fundraising totals.

His campaign raised more than $240,000 last year, with an average contribution of about $250 from some 1,000 donors.

Johnson is one of six Republicans vying for the party endorsement to take on Gov. Mark Dayton. In May, he won the straw poll of Republican delegates.

State Sen. Dave Thompson, who came in second in the straw poll, earlier this week reported $120,000 in campaign contributions.

In a statement, Johnson said he was pleased with the efforts of his campaign, but “I recognize that other candidates in this race will have higher fundraising numbers.”

Candidates must file their finance reports with the state by Jan. 31.

GOP candidates Rob Farnsworth, Scott Honour, Marty Seifert and Kurt Zellers have indicated they will not have their fundraising totals until the end of the month.

Rep. Zellers, a former speaker of the House, is cited for his fundraising prowess and is expected to show a sizable fundraising total.

It is likely that with the competition for Republican contributions, no one candidate will come close to matching Gov. Dayton's fundraising effort. His campaign suggests that he will start his re-election effort with a war chest comfortably in the seven figures.

With this year’s major state elections, the leadership of the Republican Party of Minnesota has to master a balancing act.

“We’re not afraid of primaries,” says state GOP Chair Keith Downey, “but our endorsement has to be important enough that it’s worth a lot.”

The party has begun internal discussion about the endorsement process, which remains important to party activists, while acknowledging the political reality of likely primary contests in some of its high-profile key races.

The discussion comes during an election cycle with six Republican candidates for governor, and counting. And there are three GOP candidates ready to challenge U.S. Sen. Al Franken.

Several contenders say they will go to a primary if they are not endorsed.

“If we are going to be more open, the political reality of today is that there will be primary challenges. So, is there any merit for the party to have some basic ground rules?”

The issue arose during the GOP’s recent executive committee meeting, which considered the idea of adopting some kind of guidelines.

Downey insists, however, that any endorsement policy is in the earliest stages of discussion.

The initial report of a defined set of guidelines, he said, came from minutes of the executive committee meeting that condensed the conversation of a brainstorming session.

Downey acknowledged that the group talked about options that could potentially shrink the pool of Republican candidates.

One such idea could deny endorsement to candidates who had run recently as candidates from other parties. Another variation would withhold endorsement from candidates who had run against endorsed candidates within two election cycles.

But those suggestions are specific and do not “convey the basic premise of the discussion,” Downey said.

The party, meanwhile, has yet to unify its Tea Party activists, libertarians, fiscal conservatives, and social conservatives.

“The political process is always noisy,” Downey said. “[But] if the different types of Republicans would apply their efforts to reach like-minded people, I think we will have more success.”

He suggests that an endorsement policy could achieve that goal.

A policy change, though, is far from enactment, he said, noting that any change in the party constitution goes through several committees and then to a vote by the delegates.

Still, he said, “It’s a worthy discussion. The discussion and reprinting of our minutes lit up a conversation.”

Candidate Scott Honour has jumped to the head of the pack of GOP gubernatorial candidates in fundraising for 2013.

In an email to supporters, Honour, a businessman, announced his campaign has raised more than $500,000 from individual donors as of the end of December.

“As a political outsider and first time candidate, I’m pleased that we’ve been able to raise money and build a strong volunteer base in a crowded race against a group of long-time Republican office holders,” he wrote.

That crowded field includes Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, who reported his campaign raised $250,000 last year, and state Sen. Dave Thompson, who said he raised $120,000.

Former legislator Marty Seifert, who did not enter the race until just before Thanksgiving, has said his fundraising total will be lower than some of his competitors.

Hibbing high school teacher Rob Farnsworth said he has raised less than $10,000.

Still to report or provide an estimate of fundraising is state Rep. Kurt Zellers, and former House speaker, who is noted for his fundraising skills on behalf of the Republican House caucus.

All reports must be submitted to the state Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board by Jan. 31. The reports will disclose donors, any loans or gifts from the candidates themselves, and a campaign’s cash on hand.

Bill Jungbauer, GOP chair in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District and a longtime party leader, has a prediction.

He expects some familiar results when Republican activists attending Feb. 4 precinct caucuses take their first stab at choosing one of six candidates to run against Mark Dayton.

His view: The leading vote-getters will be Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, state Sen. Dave Thompson and former House Majority Leader Marty Seifert.

“I would say the results would be comparable to the [straw poll] at the State Central meeting,” he said. “There might be a small shift in the order, but it won’t be great.”

A survey of the GOP chairs in other congressional districts indicates those three candidates have been the most active in their outreach to potential delegates to the party’s state convention in May.

“The Johnson campaign has been very active,” said Chuck Roulet, 3rd Congressional District chair.

“In terms of candidates, there’s a lot of buzz for Dave Thompson,” according to Dave Thul, vice chair of the 1st Congressional District.

Meanwhile, in the 8th District, chair Ted Lovdahl reports: “I see Marty Seifert is coming out as one of the strong ones. He’s got a lot of name recognition.”

With more than 4,000 precincts in the state, any snapshot of the possible outcomes on Caucus Night will be blurry.

 But Thompson and Johnson, who have said they will abide by the party endorsement, are a natural fit with party activists who believe the grass-roots endorsement process has more value than a primary.

This year, Seifert has not committed to abiding by a party endorsement but did so in 2010, when he lost the endorsement to Tom Emmer.

GOP congressional chairs are mixed on what kind of turnout to expect for precinct caucuses, which historically draw lower numbers in non-presidential years. And “it is a Tuesday night in February,” noted Roulet.

Jungbauer said he expects “a good turnout” in the 2nd. Meanwhile, Thul in the 1st predicts an above-average turnout, fueled in part by three candidates who want to unseat incumbent Congressman Tim Walz.

“We’re hearing from people who are asking how to show up, and they say it’s because they’re interested in one of those candidates,” Thul said.

Nancy LaRoche, GOP chair of the 5th Congressional District, which includes Minneapolis, said that she expects numbers equal to 2010 but with some newcomers, too. 

“We identified about 1,200 new voters for the Minneapolis mayor’s race, and we will contact them,” she said. “And we’ve been doing a lot of outreach. I’ve been getting a lot of calls from minority groups within the 5th.”

Republican precinct caucus attendees also will indicate a preference for a U.S. Senate candidate to take on Al Franken.

But in that race, the congressional chairs didn’t see an early frontrunner. The field includes state Rep. Jim Abeler, businessman Mike McFadden and state Sen. Julianne Ortman.

Twin Cities broadcasting pioneer Stan Hubbard (and my former employer) left a weekend meet-and-greet with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie “very impressed” with what he heard.

Stan Hubbard

Hubbard and his wife attended a gathering Sunday in Palm Beach, Fla., hosted by Ken Langone, founder of Home Depot and a longtime Hubbard friend and business associate.

The Palm Beach event and weekend appearances elsewhere in Florida were Christie’s first ventures out of state since his Jan. 9 marathon news conference in which he apologized for his administration’s involvement in orchestrating a massive traffic jam as political retaliation.

Hubbard joined a group of about 100 Republican donors, but this event, he said, “wasn’t a fundraiser” — just an opportunity to learn more about Christie’s brand of politics.

“Christie comes across as a very warm and genuine person,” Hubbard said.

Christie convinced him that the governor’s denial of prior knowledge of the Fort Lee traffic jams is true.

“He answered questions directly,” Hubbard said. Christie is too smart, Hubbard suggested, to get involved in “the stupidest thing I can imagine.”

As for a presidential run, Christie said he hadn’t made up his mind but did speak of a national agenda, Hubbard said.

“He talked about what has to be done,” he said. “We’ve got to cut entitlements, have means-testing for Medicare and Social Security.”

Hubbard, who has contributed to both Republicans and Democrats, said, “My powder is dry” on who should be the next Republican presidential nominee. “Who knows? Maybe the Democrats could come up with a good common-sense candidate,” he said.

But Christie, clearly, made a positive impression on Hubbard.

“He’s very smart, and he’s able to communicate,” he said. “I can see why he became governor of New Jersey.”

Call it the loneliness of the long-distance candidate.

On a snowy, below-zero night, at an American Legion in Waconia, Chris Dahlberg was 175 miles away from his home in west Duluth, trying to persuade Republican activists to endorse him as their candidate for the U.S. Senate.

He had spent Tuesday afternoon door-knocking in Victoria, extolling his credentials as an attorney, Iraq war veteran and St. Louis County commissioner and explaining why he believed Sen. Al Franken was out of touch with average Minnesotans.

“This is one of the colder days, but I’m dressed warm. I’ve got military long underwear on,” said Dahlberg, who’s competing against three metro-area Senate candidates. “We’re calling it the blizzard tour.”

It’s the brand of retail politics that a candidate must practice to emerge from the precinct caucuses Feb. 4 as a contender. It’s particularly a necessity for Dahlberg, who has little name recognition, minimal campaign money and a political base in the heart of DFL-dominated west side of Duluth.

On Tuesday, both he and Sen. Julianne Ortman, another U.S. Senate candidate, met with Senate District 47’s BPOU (basic political organizing district) in Waconia. Ortman, who is serving her fourth term, represents the district.

Afterward, Dahlberg packed up his change of clothes in a cardboard box and headed home for a few hours’ sleep.

The next day, he set out again for “meet-and-greets” in Moorhead, Alexandria and Virginia. That was to be followed by visits to Grand Rapids, Bemidji, Crookston and East Grand Forks and then on to Thief River Falls to participate in a Saturday candidate forum.

“You have to know the issues,” Dahlberg said. He believes that health care and education should be decided by the states, that the attack in Benghazi deserves a retooling of diplomatic security and that the U.S. should re-examine its role in Afghanistan and the China seas.

“But you also have to be in touch with the people,” he said.

Since he entered the race on Sept. 26, Dahlberg has logged thousands of miles going to dozens of events across the state and impressing local activists.

“Chris Dahlberg is doing Campaign 101,” said Nancy LaRoche, chair of the 5th Congressional District in Minneapolis.

Dahlberg’s candidacy got an early boost with an endorsement from Stan Hubbard, owner of the Hubbard Broadcasting media empire and a former employer of mine.

“He’s a terrific guy. In my opinion, he’s by far the best candidate,” Hubbard said. “He understands people and families.”

But the support he’s found so far has yet to show up in the campaign’s bank account. Dahlberg says his campaign will report donations “into the six figures” when he files his fundraising report at the end of the month. “We obviously know we have to bump this up.”

He and his fellow Republican competitors Rep. Jim Abeler and Ortman are unlikely to even come close to the fundraising strength of businessman Mike McFadden, who has reported $1.7 million cash on-hand in his campaign.  

Dahlberg appears concerned — but not consumed — by the financial realities of running a successful campaign against Al Franken.

“No amount of money is going to erase a flawed candidate,” he said. And he maintains that even when there’s a frosty reception to his knock at the door, there’s enough fire in his belly to keep him moving to caucus day and beyond.

Former House Majority Leader Marty Seifert is not at the top of the GOP field of gubernatorial candidates in his 2013 fundraising, but he is the first to report what he actually has in his campaign bank account.

The Seifert campaign reported Tuesday that it had raised $150,000 in 2013 and has $138,400 “cash on hand” after expenses. He said the contributions came from small and large donors, with no contributions from lobbyists.

Seifert says he knew his late November start would affect fundraising totals. “We started with 6 dollars and 8 cents, and we didn’t do anything until I announced — Nov. 21,” he said.  “That was a tough time, but we think we came out with a good number.” 

In the race to secure the Republican nomination and take on Gov. Mark Dayton in November, businessman Scott Honour leads with $500,000 in contributions.

State Rep. Kurt Zellers reported $400,000, followed by Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson with $240,000 and state Sen. Dave Thompson at $120,000. Hibbing schoolteacher Rob Farnsworth has not reported an official number but said he raised less than $10,000.

The question that candidates now faces is the so-called “burn rate,” what it costs to raise money.  Seifert reports that his campaign had a relatively low burn rate of 8 percent.

Those details will be revealed in a few days. Candidates for state offices must file their financial reports by Friday with the Minnesota Campaign Finance and Disclosure Board.

Precinct caucuses, the first step in a candidate’s quest for party endorsement, will take place Feb. 4.

Given the timing, Seifert said he doubted that most caucus attendees would be aware of the candidates’ bottom-line campaign funds.

“Do caucus-goers pay close attention?” he asked. “They probably do not. There is something to be said that a lot of the Republican rank and file don’t care about fundraising.”

U.S. Senate candidate Mike McFadden’s campaign is brushing aside a DFL complaint about his first debate with other GOP candidates.

The DFL in a press release criticized him for appearing before the Freedom Club, a private political club that it called “an exclusive right-wing group reserved for high dollar donors.”

Deputy Campaign Manager Tom Erickson defended McFadden's participation, saying, “This is the first debate that has worked with Mike’s schedule.”

Some Freedom Club events have been open to the media but not to the general public. A spokesman for the Freedom Club has not returned a call to confirm the status of the Feb. 10 Senate debate.

McFadden, an investment banker, has been active in cultivating grass-roots support before Tuesday’s precinct caucuses, Erickson said. On Tuesday night, for example, McFadden joined other GOP candidates at a Senate District 49 meet-and-greet event in Edina.

His campaign makes no secret that raising money, especially from large donors, is a key part of the strategy to take on Sen. Al Franken in the general election.

The McFadden campaign reports $1.7 million cash on hand, roughly 10 times the amount raised by fellow GOP candidates Chris Dahlberg, Jim Abeler and Julianne Ortman. Franken reports a balance of $4.8 million in his campaign.

“You need to connect with voters, excite grass-root voters, and raise enough money to get your message out,” Erickson said.

The campaign recently sent a fundraising letter, written by several prominent business leaders, including developer Pat Ryan, former Cargill executive Fritz Corrigan, TCF Bank CEO Bill Cooper and former Target CEO Bob Ulrich.

“We may be backing different horses in the governor’s race, but when it comes to Minnesota’s Senate race, we are all in agreement: Mike McFadden is the only candidate with the money and the message needed to take on Al Franken,” the letter states. It concludes with a request for campaign contributions ranging from $100 to the maximum contribution of $2,600.

Erickson said McFadden’s support comes from a “broad coalition of Minnesotans” and “prominent grass-roots activists” who serve on his steering committee.

McFadden, he said, will go to a primary “as long as he feels he’s the best candidate to beat Al Franken,” and fundraising strength appears to be the foundation of that choice.

Any excitement produced from Tuesday night’s precinct caucuses in Minnesota will likely come from the Republican straw polls.

Even DFLers understand that it’s the grass-roots views of the top-of-the ticket GOP competitions for governor and U.S. Senate that will gain most of the attention.

Additionally, of course, there will be that always-intriguing storyline about who controls the Republican Party: the Tea Party Patriots and their friends or whatever is left of Republicans of yesteryear?

That doesn’t mean DFLers also don’t have serious business on their hands.

With state control, DFL playing defense

The headliners — Gov. Mark Dayton and Sen. Al Franken — won’t be challenged in their own party. DFLers currently hold all of the statewide offices, and the only opening will be for secretary of state, where Mark Ritchie has decided not to run for a third term.

But there’s real, if not headline-grabbing, work for DFLers to take care of. The precinct caucuses will be Step 1 in part efforts to hold onto the House majority the DFL surprisingly grabbed back from the GOP in the elections of 2012.

“We have a strong story to tell,” said House Majority Leader Erin Murphy.

But, in the next breath, she admitted there are challenges, too. In non-presidential election years, for example, it often is difficult to inspire the DFL base to get to the polls in numbers needed to hold power. Precinct caucuses will serve as a pep rally for the party.

At many DFL gatherings, there’s likely to be a heavy dose of rhetoric supporting an increase in the state’s minimum wage.

On the other hand, the DFL has to deftly handle the mining issue — the old jobs-versus-the-environment battle — to prevent creating the sort of splits that dampen activist enthusiasm.

Independence Party caucuses, too

As always, there’s another factor in Minnesota politics: The Independence Party also will be having caucuses Tuesday night, either in person or online.

For years, the party has attempted to create some sort of a meaningful brand by winning elections in lower-level races, but victory there, too, has proven elusive.

The questions surrounding the IP’s impact in 2014 likely won’t be determined Tuesday night. In fact, the IP’s impact likely won’t be apparent until it’s known whether there are any “big names” willing to carry the party banner in either the Senate or governor’s race.

Back to the GOP and its caucuses.

Nothing unites a party so much as losing, and after winning control of both the state Senate and House in 2010, the GOP managed to lose everything by 2012. Although the gubernatorial race was extremely close, the legislative sweep by DFLers surprised all — including most DFLers.

In one election cycle, the GOP went from having an 11-seat majority in the House to a 12-seat deficit.  In the Senate, Republicans went from holding a seven-seat majority to finding themselves with a nine-seat minority status.

Two proposed constitutional amendments — one banning same-sex marriage and one changing voting rules — were driven by the most conservative elements of the party. Those controversies, together with a sex scandal, a mismanaged state party office and demands that its candidates pass red-meat conservative purity tests, all led to the amazing turnaround in power.

Toned-down GOP rhetoric?

Entering the precinct caucuses, the GOP seems to be toning down some of the hard-right talk.

No one represents that effort to lower the rhetoric more than gubernatorial candidate Jeff Johnson.

In an email to GOP activists, Johnson, a Hennepin County commissioner, wrote:

“What if you put yourself in the place of your non-Republican neighbors whose votes will be crucial in a statewide election? What will they think of each candidate? Will they like him? Will they trust him? Will they vote for him?”

(Digression: The co-reporters on this story had a bit of discussion on Johnson’s comments. Grow wondered if Johnson hadn’t blundered by making constant references to “him”: “Wouldn’t women ask the question, ‘Hey, pal, what about me?” Brucato, though, thought Grow was missing the obvious: “He chose the masculine pronoun because only men are running” in the governor’s race.)

Johnson is among a half-dozen men seeking his party’s nod for governor. Rob Farnsworth, Scott Honour, Marty Seifert, Dave Thompson and Kurt Zellers round out the field. All are similarly conservative, but their styles are very different.

For example, Thompson, though affable, is the sort of red-meat conservative Johnson was suggesting is not electable.

Johnson is not alone in talking of the importance of electability.

Tea Party movement still could be strong

Walter Hudson, a pioneer in Minnesota’s Tea Party Patriot movement and a supporter of the Senate campaign of Mike McFadden, said in an e-mail that political pundits are way off the mark by suggesting that those of the Tea Party persuasion are more interested in principle than victory.

“Silly remarks by some candidates around the country have fostered the perception that the Tea Party wields its support recklessly,” Hudson wrote. “All have begun to see the value in approaching politics methodically. What we need are good conservatives who comport themselves professionally and run serious, credible campaigns. That’s what everyone I talk to wants whether they are a Tea Party activist or a long-time GOP donor.”

There is some disagreement over how much impact the Tea Party will have on Tuesday’s caucuses.

Hudson believes it will be substantial, although that doesn’t mean Tea Party activists all will support the same candidates. But they will show up, and showing up is power.

But Andy Aplikowski, a GOP officer in the 6th Congressional District, believes that the Tea Party influence may not be quite as strong as in the last couple of cycles. Additionally, he believes that candidates who show willingness to abide by party endorsement will gain favor over those who may pass all the purity tests.

State Sen. Julianne Ortman, who is running against Franken, likely made a wise strategic move when she announced recently that she will abide by the endorsement. That may help her make up for her voting record, which hasn’t always pleased the strongest conservatives in her party.

McFadden has said he likely would run in a primary for the Senate seat, and state Rep. Jim Abeler, too, has indicated he’d consider a primary run.

But whether the GOP can find and support legislative candidates who can win back key suburban districts remains one of the big questions that will only begin to be answered Tuesday night.

Control of House key for DFL

Meantime, the DFL’s Murphy, who did so much to put together the winning slate of candidates two years ago, wants to avoid the losses that typically follow the sort of victories that the DFL enjoyed two years ago.

In fact, she says, there could be gains — especially in the eastern suburbs of the metro area and in northwestern Minnesota.

“I know 2014 will be challenging,” she said. “But we have executed our agenda. The economy is growing. There are all sorts of benchmarks that show we are doing better than before and better than the states around us. The message isn’t simple, but I don’t think people want to go backward.”

There is one particularly interesting group of precinct caucuses to watch: House District 60B in Minnapolis. That’s where Rep. Phyllis Kahn, who’s serving her 21st term, is being challenged by Mohamud Noor, who was recently named to the Minneapolis School Board.

Kahn was among the first ripple of women to enter the Legislature when she was elected to office in 1972.

Noor, 40 years younger than her, comes from a Somali community that showed its political clout by supporting successful Minneapolis City Council candidate Abdi Warsame. Warsame became the council’s first Somali member when, in November, he defeated longtime DFL incumbent Robert Lilligren.

The key to Warsame’s victory was very early political organizing.

And such efforts are often the key to success at precinct caucuses.

Round One of the Republican fight to reclaim the suburban legislative seats lost in 2012 started here at Southview Middle School in Edina.

The precincts that make up House District 49A — now represented by former-Republican-turned-DFLer Ron Erhardt — caucused to hear from two candidates who want the GOP endorsement.

Polly Peterson Bowles, an attorney whose father once represented the district, and Dario Anselmo, the former owner of the Fine Line Music Café, brought similar credentials and name recognition to some 300 people at the district caucuses.

They also bring a tilt toward the middle in a district that has traditionally supported fiscally conservative but socially moderate Republicans and, for the first time in decades, elected a DFL state representative.

Bowles made her pitch to the grass-roots sentiments that caucus-goers share. “We are the best people to craft solutions,” she said. “I think our government and state are getting off track.”

Anselmo, who is active in both business and education groups, appealed to the district’s pride in its schools. “I’ve always been involved in education,” he said, citing his work on the Edina Education Fund, a group that raises money for the district’s school system.

Their messages appeared to resonate in Precinct Four, where Scott Honour and Mike McFadden — viewed as the more moderate candidates in the GOP field — respectively won the candidates’ straw poll for governor and U.S. Senate.

The precinct's 15 participants then went on to debate whether Republicans needed to return to the center. Most agreed the party needed to be more “pragmatic.”

Precinct Four’s straw-poll choices, however, did not reflect the statewide results.

In the gubernatorial race, former state Rep. Marty Seifert, making his second run for the office, reactivated his 2010 base among the party faithful, leading the statewide straw poll with 28 percent. He was followed by state Sen. Dave Thompson at 25 percent. Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson finished in third.

In the statewide U.S. Senate straw poll, state Sen. Julianne Ortman won with 31 percent. Businessman Mike McFadden got 23 percent, and state Rep. Jim Abeler received 15 percent.

MinnPost photo by Brian Halliday

Dario Anselmo, right, who is active in both business and education groups, appealed to the district’s pride in its schools.

But in 49A, the state Republican Party is less interested in the district’s preferences for governor and senator than in the choice of candidate to run against Erhardt in November. House Republicans, smarting from their loss of this district, have already dispatched a campaign assistant for Bowles.

Anselmo, who announced his candidacy just two weeks ago, reported on caucus night that he has already raised more than $20,000. “We know it’s going to be expensive” for Republicans to reclaim the seat, he told one precinct gathering.

Both have indicated they are likely to abide by their party endorsement.

Bowles and Anselmo have one more level to go — the March 15 Senate district convention that will endorse candidates for both House seats.